Last week, The New York Times reported the discovery of large quantities of mineral deposits in Afghanistan. The approximately $1 trillion (Dh3.7 trillion) in untapped minerals could, according to Pentagon officials, fundamentally "alter the Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself". There are huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt and gold, as well as critical industrial metals such as lithium. An internal Pentagon memo stated that Afghanistan could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium", a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for electronic appliances.
In normal circumstances, this would be considered good news. It would attract heavy foreign investment and provide jobs for thousands of jobless Afghans, most of whom have experienced nothing but war. Alas, the situation won't play out like this. The vast scale of Afghanistan's mineral wealth will almost certainly transform the country into an arena of even fiercer competition between the great powers.
The US, for example, is already complaining about resource-hungry China trying to dominate the development of Afghanistan's mineral wealth. Russia, India and Iran are also interested. Each will try to get as much as it possibly can of the Afghan pie. The US is likely to reconsider its plan to withdraw the greater part of its troops from the country by the end of 2011.
Ulterior motives
The US invaded Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, attacks, accusing the Taliban regime of providing safe havens for Osama Bin Laden and other Al Qaida leaders. Some analysts believe, however, that the key motive behind the invasion was to prevent the construction of a pipeline that would supply China with Iranian oil via Afghanistan. Had that project been completed, it could have decreased China's reliance on sea routes that are under US control. The discovery of vast mineral reserves in Afghanistan should give Washington one more good reason for its troops to stick around.
The presence of valuable natural deposits has proved to be at times a curse rather than a blessing — Iraq is a case in point. Although experts on US foreign policy are still debating the true motives behind George W. Bush's decision to overthrow Saddam Hussain's regime, it is becoming absolutely clear that oil was the most important factor.
We all know now that when the Bush administration came to power in early 2001, it was single-mindedly preoccupied with oil. Hence, immediately after taking office, former vice president Dick Cheney, set up a committee to examine US energy demands for the next 20 years. The committee concluded that US dependency on external oil supplies would increase from 50 per cent in 2001 to 70 per cent in 2020, and that most of this supply would come from the Middle East. To secure an uninterrupted supply from the Gulf, the committee recommended that Saddam be removed. This was swiftly achieved, and Iraq's oil fell under US control.
Following the invasion and the subsequent failure to find Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, the US government was forced to admit that oil was the main reason for military action against Iraq. The admission was made by then Deputy Secretary of Defence Paul Wolfowitz, in an address to delegates at an Asian security summit in Singapore in the fall of 2003. Asked why a nuclear power such as North Korea was being treated differently from Iraq, where hardly any weapons of mass destruction had been found, the deputy secretary of defence said: "Let's look at it simply. The most important difference between North Korea and Iraq is that, economically, we just had no choice in Iraq. The country swims on a sea of oil".
Full speed ahead
Although it would take decades to fully exploit the mineral wealth of Afghanistan, which has virtually no mining industry, the Pentagon has already set up a system to achieve this aim. Despite the poor security situation, US firms that have expertise in mining have already been invited to consider investing. The finds — which, according to The New York Times, include large deposits of niobium, a soft metal used in producing superconducting steel, rare earth elements and large gold deposits in Pashtun areas of southern Afghanistan — should require the US to maintain a large military presence in the country.
The newfound mineral wealth should also exacerbate the decades-old civil conflict in the country. The Taliban now have another incentive to try to return to power. Fierce fighting could also erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts.
All this means that the discovery of huge quantities of mineral deposits is bad news for Afghanistan.
Dr Marwan Al Kabalan is a member of the Center for Strategic Studies and Research at Damascus University in Syria.
