The Lebanese state and its army have to take a backseat and cool hot heads in Tripoli and its surrounding areas. They have to play the role of conciliators rather than go head-on with their heavy-handed approach, as in the case of the army, and add fuel to an already tense sectarian situation in the country.
It does not do anybody any good, at least if it is not sure of winning, for the Lebanese army to adopt extreme arm-twisting tactics or use aircraft and battleships or generally become trigger-happy against those undermining the state. The army must not become further embroiled in the city in its attempt to crack down on terror groups like Jabhat Al Nusra and Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) that have become entrenched in the old quarter, which is on the Unesco World Heritage Site list.
While it is understandable that the army will want to have control of the city, particularly after its officers were provoked and are seeking to establish order and control, nevertheless, it has to adopt a soft approach, just as it has been doing over the previous months when the government objective was to defuse a tense situation. After all, Tripoli is roughly only 30 kilometres away from the Syrian border and it has long felt the effects of the civil war in that country.
The unprecedented and bloody military crackdown — which resulted in scores of deaths, including 11 soldiers and 23 militants and civilians in the last days of last month — may have put an end to established government policy of not going too deep and antagonising different forces and parties there. If it is a one-off, then it may be ok, but it is feared that the army is already in an abrasive mood and wants to continue with such tactics to get rid of terrorist groups. The situation has been worsened by the fact these groups, which now assemble in different neighbourhoods in Tripoli, have been spilling over from Syria after 2011 when the revolution resulted in bloody mayhem. Increasing numbers of their members have been moving amongst the millions of Syrian refugees across the region. Today, at least one million Syrian refugees have moved into Lebanon alone creating unspeakable strains on the economy.
Clearly Jabhat Al Nusra and Daesh now want to expand their bases, in spite of the coalition against them by the US and other foreign and Arab allies. Unperturbed by the aerial attacks on their bases in Syria and Iraq, they want to widen their so-called ‘caliphate’ and gain a foothold in Lebanon. Obviously, Tripoli could well be the next easy target and be added to the swathes of territory that Daesh has in northern Syria and central and western Iraq.
Because of this, Lebanon has to see Tripoli and its surrounding areas as dangerous flashpoints. Its political leaders must realise the need to establish a strong state by putting their house in order and political parties must put aside their differences and choose a new president — the country has been without one since last May — to provide some semblance of political stability. While there are current moves in parliament by different political groups, more needs to done to elect a president to restore the trappings of a state and openly extend its hand to such troubled spots like Tripoli and its Sunni-dominated population. This would put it in a better position to defuse the seething frustrations and “flush out” the extremist elements who have been a rallying point of support among the people there.
For whatever reasons, the Tripoli Sunnis, mostly poor and from the working classes, have become more radicalised than other sects and many of them support Syrian Sunnis who are trying to drive the regime there out of power. However, this is not much different from the Alawites and Shiites in the area and Hezbollah, who support the Baathist regime and are fighting alongside it.
The situation has been rendered more complex by the fact that unlike Shiites and Christians living in different parts of the city, which reflect the whole of Lebanon, the Sunnis today simply feel disenfranchised from the authorities and discriminated against. If however, this situation can be turned around and policies become fairer, then that would be a plus for the Lebanese state, government and the army and give a new semblance, however tenuous, of national unity. This would also probably result in avoiding another civil war, which many think is just around the corner. However, this may be easier said than done because political and sectarian divisions are becoming entrenched, especially around Tripoli, where ordinary people who have been living across the sectarian fault lines are now finding it difficult to accept one another. The Bekaa Valley to the east of Tripoli is a traditional Hezbollah stronghold, whose rising strength has made it a shining star in Lebanese politics, regardless of the fact that it is fighting on the side of the regime in Syria. It has long gained the upper hand in the Lebanese government and is pulling many of the strings there.
In this quagmire, all parties in Lebanon, including the government and its leaders, must uphold the virtues of politics. There has to be greater level-headedness and political dexterity to bring the situation from the recent soaring temperatures down to normal, as the Middle East has already passed the 100-degree-Celsius mark. But, rather surprisingly, the cooling of hot heads has started already with none other than Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Through his speech this week in south Beirut, he sent conciliatory messages to his Sunni colleagues and praised the moves of Al Mustaqbal Party and Sa’ad Hariri for their political initiative in Tripoli to calm tempers and bring Lebanon back from the slippery-slope to “disaster”.
Therefore, it would seem Lebanese leaders, politicians and parliamentarians do not want to widen the conflict, which they believe would be in nobody’s interest. More confidence-building measures are required to stop the sects on the ground from becoming increasingly embroiled in the conflict next door.
Marwan Asmar is a commentator based in Amman. He has long worked in journalism and has a Phd in Political Science from Leeds University in the United Kingdom.
