It was a bright and unusually warm October morning as I headed to work in Kabul. The morning was filled with both excitement and anxiety as I rushed to cover the first ever Afghan presidential election via live radio. In those days, Kabul was different. The roads were not gridlocked as they are today and the pollution had not yet reached a level that would prevent you from seeing the sky or the cityscape.
On that day, the road was not blocked by cars, but by young men performing Afghanistan’s national dance — attan — in celebration of the upcoming election. It was a day filled with joy and hope as nearly 12 million Afghans went to the polls. The favoured candidate by far was the interim president Hamid Karzai, who eventually secured 54 per cent of the votes. Karzai’s election was not a surprise to anyone. An elderly man explained to me at the time, Karzai’s 17 rivals knew their chances of securing a win were virtually nonexistent. Their participation in the election was designed to demonstrate to the international community and donors the extent of support for them among their respective constituencies. In the years to come, this show of strength would prove to be critical to cabinet appointments and to the ability to influence military, economic and social policy.
The common belief is that international pressure led Karzai to appoint his election rivals to positions that afforded them not only high-ranking posts, but also allowed them to gain majority control over his cabinet. Karzai found himself at the mercy of not only the international community, which was providing significant financial support to the new government, but also at the mercy of his rivals and those who had aided his campaign efforts. His presidency would prove to be a complicated one, as he worked to appease both friend and foe.
A decade later, the same individuals and groups are competing for power and the chance at the next five-year presidential term. The Afghan constitution prevents Karzai from participating in the election as a candidate, a fact that will by no means prevent him from affecting the outcome. His support is deemed essential to win this election. Fully aware of his subtle influence, President Karzai is holding his cards close to his chest, thereby creating an air of suspense. By refusing to sign the bilateral security pact with Washington, he has garnered significant emotional support among the common majority. This added to the support he has already procured from the 34 provincial governors allows him to play a vital role in the upcoming elections. His support of certain candidates or the turning of a blind eye to election rigging, thus favouring one candidate over another, could prove substantial to the outcome of the electoral process.
Although the same individuals and groups from a decade ago still play a significant role on the current political stage, individual power and influence has fluctuated in some ways. Ten years ago the Taliban were not in a position to significantly disturb the electoral process or affect the outcome.
Today this is not the case, their presence is much more considerable; as demonstrated by the last parliamentary election in which they prevented entire communities from voting. The Taliban, along with neighbouring countries, will most definitely affect the election process and the outcome. Afghan security forces will do their best to secure the election and ensure that voters are able to cast their votes, but they will be met with a great deal of resistance. The election will go forward, but all of these factors will affect who gets the opportunity to vote and how they chose to cast that vote.
In addition to the internal factors within Afghanistan, there have been many changes within the international community in the past decade that will also affect the outcome of this election.
A decade ago, Afghanistan was a virtually unknown and insignificant country within the international community. Today, it dominates political and economic discussions throughout the world. Ten years ago, the political scene in Afghanistan was foreign to international donors and military analysts, thus affording Karzai’s presidency the benefit of blind support in both arenas. Over the past ten years, the international community has learned a lot about this country and its people. The new president will not enjoy the same level of support, questions will be asked and actions will need to be accounted for.
The economic scene today is very different from that of ten years ago. The international community has found itself in an economic crisis worldwide; a fact that will have an immense effect on aid that is provided to Afghanistan. Karzai’s presidency provided a sense of prosperity to the country, a decline in this sense will most definitely bring with it added criticism for the new president and his cabinet. A new Afghan president will begin his new term this summer as Karzai ends his nearly 13 years in power. By signing the BSA, encouraging the Taliban to engage in peace talks and assuring friendly relations with neighbouring countries, the new president may be able to create a constructive working environment within which to further his political and social agenda.
The newly-elected president will not, however, be free of the skeletons in the closet faced by Karzai 13 years ago. The main election rivals, financial and political supporters, the international community and Karzai himself will each flex their power and influence to further their agendas as well. The end of the election may allow the king-makers to relax, but the new president will have plenty on his plate to counter the gratification of his success.
Emal Pasarly is the multimedia editor for the BBC Service for Afghanistan. He was born in the northern Afghan province Kunduz. In the wake of the Russian invasion, his family migrated to neighbouring Pakistan. He moved to London in 1993 and began working with the BBC World Service in 1996. Emal also writes fiction in Pashto and has published two novels and four collections of short stories.
