No one is in a position to predict Libya's future. There are too many unknowns. There are too many questions begging to be answered; the one currently on most people's mind is, of course, where is Colonel Muammar Gaddafi? On this, the rumour mill has been working overtime.
Initially, it was thought he had gone to ground in the network of tunnels under the family compound; then he was erroneously believed to have been hiding out in an apartment complex nearby. Some analysts say he may have gone to his hometown Sirte. His former prime minister Abdul Salam Jalloud thinks he might have made his escape dressed in women's garments or has fled to a bolt-hole in the southern desert where he'll be protected by sympathetic tribes.
The latest Chinese whisper is that he and his entourage have entered Algeria in a convoy of armoured vehicles, which the Algerian authorities have refuted. Put simply, his whereabouts are as mysterious as the man himself.
Until this delusional regime figurehead is out of the picture, any celebrations are premature. As long as this one-time freedom fighter turned ruthless tyrant is free to send his rallying cries to Syrian television networks, his supporters will coalesce behind him — and if he still has access to serious funds he may decide to punish Nato with terrorist attacks on member countries.
Gaddafi trial
Nevertheless, the $1.6 million (Dh5.87 million) bounty on his head ‘Dead or Alive' put up by two Libyan businessmen smacks too much of the Wild West for my liking. When the revolutionaries and their backers are still an unknown quantity it is important for them to hold firmly to the rule of law rather than descend to the level of the ousted regime.
Personally, I would like to see the former leader brought before a Libyan court and given a fair trial rather than be packed-off to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. It's hypocritical that the US is pressing for the latter option when it hasn't ratified the ICC itself. And, in any case, until I see former US president George W. Bush and former British prime minister Tony Blair in the dock over Iraq, for me, that court has little credibility.
It's crucial that lingering fans of Gaddafi are convinced their world has changed from a dictatorship to a democracy with all that implies which is why the National Transitional Council (NTC) has urged its fighters not to execute Gaddafi's soldiers and mercenaries. So far, it seems, some aren't listening. There are reports that both sides have been carrying out executions following the discovery of corpses with hands tied behind their backs, charred bodies and mass graves.
The question lingers whether the NTC will ultimately be able to exert control over its warriors who hold allegiances to different tribal heads and include secularists, progressives and Islamists. Right now, they're united in the face of a common enemy, but once the dust has settled ideological fissures may easily become chasms. Another imponderable is how the residents of Tripoli and other western cities and towns will feel about new rulers from the east setting up office in the capital. Will they readily accept being governed by ‘foreigners' whom they know next to nothing about no matter how well-intentioned the NTC might be?
It's also unclear just how much sway Nato member countries — in particular the US, Britain and France — will have over Libya. It's almost a given that those countries and others that have assisted in Libya's liberation will reap the benefits of lucrative oil and trade deals but will they demand permanent military bases on Libyan soil?
In fact, given that this particular military intervention was supposedly launched on the basis of humanitarian concerns, to protect civilians, Libya should be under no moral obligation to fall in line with western diktats.
Now that the international community (with some notable exceptions) has recognised the NTC, the interim Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril should not have to beg for Libya's assets to be unfrozen and shouldn't have to account to the UN for how they're spent. Either the NTC is in charge or it isn't. In the meantime, Washington is clamouring for the extradition of the so-called "Lockerbie Bomber" Abdul Basset Al Megrahi who has already been tried and imprisoned in Scotland before he was repatriated on compassionate grounds. Just because it was believed he only had three months to live and he has since beaten the odds shouldn't make this cancer-sufferer vulnerable to another trial in another country for the same offence.
Likewise, the British police think they can stroll into Libya to question a Libyan suspected of killing Pc Yvonne Fletcher as long ago as 1984. It's interesting that while the US and the UK are encouraging the Libyans to reconcile and move on, they're in no mood to do the same thing.
The million dollar question is this: Even if Libyans can enjoy newfound personal freedoms and greater prosperity in the years ahead, will they still be citizens of a sovereign country or will Libya become the same type of ‘sovereign' nation Iraq and Afghanistan are? Jibril would do well to convince his people he's no puppet by offering his country's sincere thanks to Nato before showing it the door.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com. Some of the comments may be considered for publication.
