Earlier, the world had witnessed the brutal murder of US journalist James Foley, an act that was enough for the US to label Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi a wanted man and a “second Bin Laden”. This is not merely an act of vengeance simply based on the principle that if you murdered one American, you have murdered them all, but rather it utilises the brutality of the act as a justification for foreign military intervention that will achieve strategic interests.
When will the US military intervention in the Arab world occur? This is the key question posed by political analysts and observers. Which Arab country will be the first? The supposedly ‘unprecedented’ attacks are expected to be the most advanced of all. It is no longer strange for the world to be shocked every now and then by acts of an extreme religious character that suddenly appear to spread terror and horror across the world. Is there a reason behind the existential significance and timing for the appearance of such a terrifying phenomenon and its proclaimed mission? Who are the ones behind the creation of this fleeting religious phenomenon, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil)? Who exported them? Where were they before the current events? Are they a part of Al Qaida? Other questions: Who set up and supported Al Qaida and the Taliban and then turned against them? Did Isil suddenly spring into existence or are they the result of seeds sowed by the support and supervision of global powers using local/domestic tools?
The presence of Isil was necessary in Syria in order for the current state of affairs to remain as they are. Had Isil not been present in Syria, the West would have been embroiled in a direct war that would have grinded on and on through its support for the various Syrian opposition factions, including the Free Syrian Army. The Damascus regime recorded political success by defaming the Syrian opposition, who allowed Isil to get involved in the crisis. The opposition failed to preserve the sanctity of its demands and also failed to preserve the integrity of its political movements, the unification of its ranks, and most importantly — it failed to snub the dubious sympathisers and stop them from sneaking into their ranks.
The US and the West knew about Isil sneaking into the Syrian scene and assisted them in doing so due to various reasons. The most significant one was for the sectarian issue to take an extreme form and transform into a civil war. The Syrian regime is allied with Russia and Iran, whose arm in the Levant is Hezbollah. This alliance expands to include other countries such as China, India and a number of South American countries. The opposition, on the other hand, is allied with Turkey, the Gulf countries, the US and some European countries. It is easy for the West to use this situation to conceal its stance: It does not support the regime or the opposition. Rather, the West has left the two parties to drain the resources of one another until their weaknesses reach the peak. This will lead to the US having the final word on the crisis.
In this context, Damascus was politically successful, while the opposition failed because it did not regulate relations at the domestic level and also because of its varying political rhetoric and ‘moving’ the dossier of the Syrian issue from the regional level to the global level — which is basically Europe and the US.
The question is: Was Isil founded to justify military intervention by world powers anywhere and at any time? The answer is perhaps yes. Had Isil not been present in Iraq, for example, the US would not have been so quick to respond to Iraq’s call for support against what US President Barack Obama called a nihilistic ideology and UK Prime Minister David Cameron termed a “cancer”. The irony here is that while the US and UK are ready to wage a political, media and military war against Isil in Iraq, they are not willing to do so in Syria. Isil is present in both the countries as a symbol of brutal practice and geographic expansion.
Where does Isil grow and what are the fertile environments in which such obscurantist ideology can grow? Historically, Isil and other similarly dangerous Islamic groups usually develop under tyrannical and repressive regimes such as Iraq and Syria. There are indications that a foreign military intervention will occur. Libya may be the launch point for an intervention by the US and the West, which will result in partitioning the country based on sects, minorities, geographic wealth and interests of the West, particularly the US.
Obama’s presidential term will come to an end in two years or so and there are indications that the next president will be a Republican. The war and oil-loving Republicans are coming and upon the Republican president’s inauguration, he will find before him a map of the Middle East, indicating areas in which the US can wage new wars, starting from Libya, which was distributed among the tribes following the regime of Muammar Gaddafi. The voices of Libyans are on the rise as they cry out for the US and the West to come and rescue them. These voices serve as a pass for the Republicans to tamper with the demographic and geographic map of the Arab world. Other Arab countries will soon follow, especially those who are suffering from difficulties during their transitional periods on the economic and political level.
Tunisia will probably be the next target. The situation in Tunisia may seem to be calm, but in reality, it is not so. There is fiery coal underneath the ash of the transitional period and things are prone to blaze up in the not-too-distant future. Libya, the neighbouring country, has always had a direct effect on Tunisia, both negative and positive. Tunisia is a country that suffers from a lack of sufficient resources and is surrounded by two massive countries: Algeria and Libya. Foreign aid is no longer easy to access due to the current international climate. Unemployment rates are on the rise in the Arab world, reaching 20 per cent, compared to the 6 per cent recorded worldwide. This means that there are 25 million unemployed Arabs. The only solution to this disastrous dilemma is creating five million jobs per year, which will help curb this issue’s escalation and ease any possible dangerous consequences that may impede sincere intentions for development in the region.
This high rate of unemployment can lead to new revolutions similar to the Spartacus uprising, pushing countries back to square one. This means the draining of natural, human and financial resources, obstructing education and health care, slowing down the continued work of organisations that will in turn help speed-up the possibility of the collapse of nations — the way Somalia collapsed or Libya is currently collapsing.
Mohammad Hassan Al Harbi is a writer and journalist.
