The US succeeded in taking advantage of Iran's need for nuclear fuel for its Tehran research purposes nuclear reactor, to transform the issue into a deal sponsored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). And Iran has accepted this deal, which puts the international community at ease.

The agreement to ship 1,200 kilograms of low enriched uranium (3.5 per cent) to Russia, to be sent back to Iran after 20 per cent enrichment, was also done through deliberations with the UN Security Council members and Germany.

However, this deal was thwarted by the Iranian Islamic Shura Council which felt that Iran's interest lies in keeping its uranium, while purchasing nuclear fuel for its research nuclear reactor through a separate deal, or to entirely give up this reactor.

But Iran only has a limited amount of time until the year's end, and apart from the great pressure it is being exposed to, it has to declare its official position, either by approving the deal to ward off additional sanctions, or by refusing, thereby facing an increasingly rigid international stand.

So far, Iran has preferred holding the stick from the middle, hence the proposal presented by its Minister of Foreign Affairs Manoucher Mottaki to swap 400 kilograms of low enriched uranium with ready to use nuclear fuel for its reactor.

This suggestion was received coldly. The US dismissed the offer and said that it does not compare to the IAEA's proposal.

But the Iranian proposal reflects its traditional distrust of Western nations, and is in line with its strategy of protecting its nuclear programme so as to reach a point of no return.

Tehran usually delays replying to international offers till the last minute, after the crisis reaches its limit. Moreover, Iran's response is made in a manner that relatively defuses the crisis at hand, or re-directs it in another direction, confusing the opponent.

The Iranian response to the international offer includes an invitation for further negotiations, thus pushing away new sanctions for the sake of buying time.

If the first part of the proposal is accepted after lengthy discussions, the second part of the suggestion related to the location of swapping will also need additional discussions, which means more time to the benefit of Iran.

Iran has failed to market itself in the Middle East as a constructive, stabilising and moderate force.

Many key officials in the Middle East have stated that Iran's nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, but at the same time they have expressed their reservations concerning Iran's ability to calm the fears of the region's countries.

Iran no longer hides the fact that it desires the West to accept its role in the region.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a statement related to the IAEA's recent proposal, that Westerners know without interacting with Iran, they will not be able to rule the world.

He also announced Iran's desire to continue the 20 per cent uranium enrichment level, thus challenging the will of major powers, and further escalating the problem to make use of it internally.

Iran's situation is weaker than before for domestic and external reasons. Externally, relations between the US, Russia and China have improved, especially in relation to the US's retreat from deploying its anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

America's acceptance of finding a substitute for the START pact has given the US a fresh confidence in that Russia will not object to imposing new sanctions on Iran.

Internally, the size of opposition to Ahmadinejad's government has grown, despite the fact that the opposition leaders have not adopted a flexible stand towards the Iranian nuclear programme.

Moreover, they have taken advantage of the weak points in Ahmadinejad's approach to embarrass him.

Mir Hussain Mousavi, the Iranian reformist leader, has accused Ahmadinejad's government of creating circumstances that will assist the West in imposing further sanctions on Iran.

Mousavi has asked about the conditions of nuclear fuel swapping, observing sarcastically that "for us to get a small quantity of nuclear fuel, do we have to hand over all our enriched uranium? Is this considered victory or deceit?"

Will Iran be able to wriggle out again from new sanctions? Or will the US succeed in enforcing its agenda through the UN Security Council, thus registering the first victory for US President Barack Obama's foreign policy?

 

- Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.