Hurdles of internal change

Pakistan's relations with the new US administration of president-elect Barack Obama have been much debated in the days since America's first African-American leader was elected to the White house. For Pakistan, close ties with the next US administration bring both opportunities and challenges.

The biggest challenge for now is to overcome the discord over Washington's use of pilot-less drones, armed with Hellfire missiles, which have periodically rained their wrath along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.

The US suspects, with more than some justification, that the border area has become a safe haven for militants belonging to Al Qaida and the Taliban. Even Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has been on record for saying that the next large 9/11 type attack on US soil, if there was to be one, would come from the border area.

It is clear that with Pakistan's own leaders expressing such apprehensions, US suspicions over the border area being a source of terrorist turmoil, would only intensify and gather further momentum. For Pakistan, the use of the drones has become a politically explosive issue, both in the areas where they target militant suspects as well as deeper inside the country's territory.

Trust

It is vital for the Pakistani government to convince the US to stop using the drones. This is essential to begin winning back the confidence of an increasingly sceptical Pakistani public, which has learnt to not only to despise Washington's policy in its war on terror but also increasingly distrust its own government.

Over time, the issue of the public's relationship with the rulers of Pakistan has become increasingly acute. If the Pakistani government could somehow win a measure of respectability for its success in convincing the US to back away on the use of drones, it is possible that the Pakistani public will praise that success.

However, to win favour with the US, Pakistan needs to begin turning the corner against the sizeable and ever-growing community of militants parked in the border region. For the past five to six years, Pakistan's troops have fought an increasingly bloody battle against militants, causing casualties both in terms of human lives and loss of valuable resources. While the US has provided generous financial and military aid to bolster the Pakistani effort, Washington have little capability to actually oversee a turning of the corner.

For Pakistan, winning this battle requires a determined push in terms of not just a series of military successes. More vitally, Pakistan needs to work towards drawing together a broad based public consensus to support the government's effort. Here lies the biggest challenges of all.

The government, which swept to power following parliamentary elections in February this year, has overseen a country which is in fast increasing disarray. Pakistan's political outlook has weakened over time while its economy has become a much bigger challenge than before. Lately, the newly-elected government has been negotiating a badly needed loan programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stave off an upcoming balance of payments crisis. But the IMF negotiations have unleashed widespread worries over more difficult economic times ahead for Pakistan as the country is forced through a series of belt tightening measures.

Writing on the wall

The writing on the wall in the period following an IMF loan is essentially that of a country forced in to greater hardships. How does the Pakistani government plan to deal with the challenges faced by a people who will inevitably be forced to sacrifice so that Pakistan as a country can face the challenge of difficult times ahead? To that obvious question, there are no easy answers.

Going by past record, whenever a crunch has come, Pakistan's ruling elite have often passed the burden on to its people without forcing new liabilities upon the relatively well to do. If the future this time around is different and Pakistan accepts belt tightening with the bulk of the responsibility falling upon those with the greatest resources, it is possible that the country may well go through an unprecedented economic renaissance.

The outcome of such a change will essentially bring together a stronger and more determined Pakistan which is ready to face the challenge of the future. Ultimately, a more solid country is the best assurance for a more durable relationship with a new US administration rather a weak, divided and directionless Pakistan.

Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.