Where has French President Francois Hollande disappeared? According to a growing number of observers, he seems not to exist anymore — at least as a president. People do not contest what he may say; they just stopped listening to him and their only concrete reaction is seen when 8 out of 10 declare they only want not to see him running again in the next presidential election.
The reason why 85 per cent of the French population “are unsatisfied with Hollande”, as per latest opinion polls, is widely known: He just did not deliver. On the domestic side, an unrivalled level of taxes weighing particularly heavy on middle and upper-middle classes, the absence of any concrete structural reforms, the inability to reduce public spending and the maintaining of privileges for the civil servants clientele, have all contributed to preclude any restoration of competitiveness — a necessary element for economic growth and recovery. Growing unemployment has logically followed.
If one adds an on-going policy of destruction of the family — the useless debate on gay marriage (and related ‘gestation for hire’ deadly issues), but also last week suppression of the ‘universality principle’ for family allowances (one used to receive according to the number of children ‘given’ to France; not according to one’s revenues — on which taxes are already levied), one cannot be surprised by the disaffection for a president whom many people had voted for just because they could not stand anymore his predecessor’s style.
On the international side, a brave reaction in Mali (mostly due to the prominent role played by the French military) does not erase a dazzled vision in the Ukrainian crisis, a stubbornly misfit policy over Syria or “the war against terrorism”, as George W. Bush used to say — no surprise to that, considering the number of surviving French neo-conservative civil servants who advise Hollande on foreign affairs.
Two years remain to run. Hollande may benefit by some of the good news to come — although many doubt about it. He may also regain the initiative in the case his Prime Minister Manuel Valls’ policy would be disowned in parliament, but socialist MPs know too well what they would lose in that game. It consequently means that the 2017 campaign has just started.
On the right, Sarkozy kicked-off but quickly flunked and his comeback has so far transformed into a splash for the French nationwide, despite his likely election by his fans next month, to the UMP’s party presidency. An obvious explanation is that Sarkozy has remained what he has always been and a majority of French will not return to 2008 — on top of the many affairs surrounding him and which in the end should not leave him unscathed. His speech is turning more right-wing than ever — but why would the people this time choose a duplicate, if they can get the original with National Front leader Marine Le Pen? As to his structural reforms proposals, he has been surprisingly poor-spirited. Former prime minister Alain Juppe is doing slightly better and certainly, Sarkozy did not expect him to be such a strong competitor. Yet, the comeback of a man who has been an outcast for so many years still puzzles, especially when considering the uneven track-record of Juppe and the ability to be the opinion of the last person who spoke. Former premier Francois Fillon is also on the run. He has smartly left the stage to the Sarkozy-Juppe confrontation, but continues to work hard for a programme of audacious proposals. Time is working for him even though, at some point, more militants will serve.
On the left, the great news has been the announcement last week that Valls was at war with a big chunk of the socialist party, confirming the deep division of his majority. Rejecting surviving communists, greens and fossilised socialists in their heteroclite corner, under the guidance of the (becoming old) ‘Lady of the 35 hours’ e.g. former minister Martine Aubry, Valls plays like a field of keel and assaults the old socialist taboos one after the other. One does not know yet where all this may lead him to, if not to show that the 2017 campaign has also started on that side — initially, with Hollande being ambushed.
All these people are presently fighting for the first round as nobody is certain to be present at the second, save one — Marine Le Pen, who is in fine fettle, according to opinion polls. She, as usual, is asking the right questions and brings the wrong answers, but the people are tired of those who have been in office for so many years and delivered so little. By simply staying quiet, Le Pen can garner votes.
Rebuilding its production tool and productivity, reengineering its diplomacy and defence, reestablishing a form of parity with Germany and above all, clarifying its objectives and sticking to them .... France has enough tasks to do that require a true statesman and the amazing herd of horses populating the political scene, save a few exceptions, is nothing encouraging. At least France is still benefitting by enough recognised trumps to take up the challenge sanguinely.
Luc Debieuvre is a French essayist and a lecturer at Iris (Institut de Relations Internationales et Strategiques) and the Faco Law University of Paris.
