Five European countries have so far been taking part in air raids against Daesh (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant): France, United Kingdom, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium. They have joined the US, which has been striking targets in Iraq for just under a month. None of the five is involved in the US air campaign over Syria. The international coalition of 20 western and Arab states is clearly dominated by one actor, as the US is reportedly carrying out 90 per cent of the air strikes. US President Barack Obama gathered military chiefs from 20 countries at Andrews air force base outside Washington on Tuesday to discuss the operation. It is not clear whether the Europeans came with a specific message.
They have their nuances. France was the first European country to commit bombers to the skies over Iraq — a decision that came in stark contrast to Jacques Chirac’s strong opposition in 2003 to George Bush’s decision to remove Saddam by force. French President Francois Hollande has recently called for a no-fly zone over Syria. His argument is that this will help rebel forces combating the Bashar Al Assad regime. France is so far the only western country, other than Turkey, to call for such an internationally protected enclave within Syria. But France has refrained, as others have, from committing planes over Syria.
The UK has signed up to the coalition, but the shadow of the Iraq war looms over its participation. Unlike Hollande, British Prime Minister David Cameron will be attentive to the dangers of mission creep. Denmark operates a highly Atlanticist policy. It took part in the Iraq war and in Nato’s Libya operation in 2011. The Netherlands has also historically been strongly pro-US, but although it decided to “politically support” the 2003 war, it refrained from taking part militarily. Belgium also stayed out of that conflict. Germany is conspicuously taking a back seat. It supports the war, but has limited its involvement to providing military equipment to Kurdish forces in Iraq. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German Foreign Minister, has declared: “It doesn’t make sense, if a dozen countries are launching air strikes, for Germany to be the 13th or 14th country. It is utterly wrong to regard participation in air strikes as a yardstick for international commitment.”
Yet, Germany deployed forces to Afghanistan for the war against Al Qaida and the Taliban. In its early stages, this intervention was similarly aimed at depriving a terrorist organisation of its safe haven.
The five European nations engaged against Daesh share a deep preoccupation: They fear the development of terrorist networks and ideology among their Muslim communities. Their governments have all cast their policies on Iraq essentially in terms of counterterrorism and national security.
On the face of it, there is no transatlantic clash over the war against Daesh. Obama is not experiencing what happened to Bush on Iraq, when Europe split right down the middle diplomatically into what former US secretary of defence Donald Rumsfeld called old Europe and new Europe. The current apparent unity, one may think, gives the Europeans a certain leverage on how the overall strategy will unfold.
But so far, there has been nothing resembling a forward-looking strategy for any kind of regional political settlement nor a convincing plan to address the humanitarian disaster. So do the Europeans intend seriously to discuss the endgame? Wouldn’t it be in their interests to make sure Washington isn’t entirely left to its own devices in this latest Middle Eastern imbroglio? After all, Europe as a whole, will continue to feel the fallout of the turmoil in a much bigger way than America. Being much closer to the region, Europe feels the impact of the humanitarian catastrophe and the flow of refugees. It faces a much greater danger from growing numbers of its youths travelling to Syria to join the extremist brigades of Daesh. European diplomats and intelligence services have a knowledge of the region that may help them avoid some of the pitfalls.
Also, European countries can claim to be loyal allies. This certainly cannot be said of the Middle East’s regional players. Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Turkey (as current tensions with the US continue to demonstrate), not to mention Iran, are all playing their own game of brinkmanship, having turned Syria and Iraq into a proxy war for their regional rivalries. Surely sending F-16 and Tornado fighter jets cannot be a substitute for putting in some of the political and diplomatic creative thinking that the region is in such desperate need of. One high-ranking European official recently spelled it out to me this way: “The Europeans feel awkward because they think the US bombing policy is necessary, but insufficient. Air strikes, OK, but what next? This raises the whole problem of a political solution in Syria. The conversation hasn’t happened yet.”
So here are a few thoughts for a Europe-led discussion. First, make sure international efforts are not just geared towards this new front in the war against terror, but that they address the human rights nightmare in Syria, which has all but faded from debate. International justice might come in handy. Second, see what can be salvaged from the EU’s “neighbourhood policy” and the resources it was supposed to have deployed after the Arab awakening of 2011. Reformulate and channel that towards current needs. Third, start thinking about the outlines of a regional peace conference - it can never be too soon. Fourth, draft proposals for something resembling a Marshall plan for the Middle East. Everyone knows that serious stabilisation and rebuilding efforts will ultimately be required.
Yes, this is a tall order. But Europe would be foolish to think the US won’t be tempted to cut loose and turn its attention to other parts of the world (Asia, for example), once some of its goals have been achieved via bombing. Europe would then be left, along with the Middle Eastern players, to live with the consequences.
One of the stark rules of diplomacy is that you don’t choose your geographical environment. And unlike Afghanistan, this war on terror is right on Europe’s doorstep.
— Guardian News & Media Ltd
