US President Barack Obama has been in office for 18 months, but there have been no major changes in American foreign policy in the Middle East.
Military interventions, such as the ongoing war in Afghanistan and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, along with the US military deployment and the establishment of bases in some countries in the Middle East, have been used to further US political vision, with all the security and economic implications it entails.
Although there is a new administration in Washington, the use of force to further economic, political and security objectives continues.
America's main interest is ensuring control over the region's oil resources. This will continue to be the case for several decades, especially with the emergence of new competitors whose economic growth relies on the Middle East's oil.
Because military presence alone was not sufficient for the US to realise its goals in the region, the Bush administration worked on a plan to change the political systems in some Arab and Muslim countries.
The three-dimensional plan involves a combination of democratic mechanisms and ethnic or sectarian federations.
The US knows that if there is genuine democracy in the region and no divisions in society, new governments will emerge that disagree with America's vision and policy, similar to what has happened in some European states and Turkey, with regards to Iraq, Iran and the Palestinian cause.
So, Washington worked on preparing democratic systems within the framework of a federal constitutional formula, while creating ethnic and sectarian divisions as this would spark conflicts that may prevent political and economic stability, in accordance with the US vision.
The federal structure that the US seeks to establish in the region will allow it to interfere in the states' internal affairs.
The second point of the US plan is creating a "Middle Eastern" identity as a broader umbrella for all the region's countries. This is because working under the umbrella of the Arab League or the Organisation of the Islamic Conference might lead to the emergence of blocs that could disagree with the US vision.
Therefore, the US has sought to create a "broader Middle East" as an umbrella under which Israel will be an influential member, and the Arab-Islamic identity will be abolished.
Peace process
The third element of the US plan is based on the need to end the Arab-Israeli conflict by giving priority to normalisation of ties before achieving a final settlement.
The US believes that the normalisation of ties would push all parties to accept the minimum demands under any conditions, and would also help end conflicts in the region even without having comprehensive political settlements.
In short, all Washington's wars under the Bush administration were aimed at creating democracies that are not independent of the US.
These wars led to domestic political struggles based on ethnic and sectarian divisions — but not full-scale civil wars.
These wars are aimed at establishing the US military and security presence in the region without getting entangled in internal wars of attrition, or committing to maintaining large numbers of troops.
This may explain the US stance towards several Arab governments and issues, such as Iraq and Sudan, which are heading towards the US federal-democratic style.
In Palestine and Lebanon, the US could not achieve its goals due to the steadfastness of resistance in both countries.
Also, it was not possible to isolate the US-Iran crisis from other issues in the region — Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine — simply because Iran is concerned about any political developments in the Arab world.
Many regional crises have arisen as a result of the situation in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. Among these are the sectarianism and ethnic conflicts in addition to the political power struggles.
What has happened and is still happening in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Palestine and Sudan, as well as the tension between the US and Iran, is a result of the arrogant policies of the Bush administration.
The entire world has realised that all justifications and reasons given by the Bush administration for waging war on Iraq were untrue. What is even worse is that the decision to go to war was made before the September 11 attacks.
Despite Obama's election promise, there have been no real changes in US foreign policy, specifically with regard to the Arab-Israeli conflict. US policy is still strongly linked to the former administration's vision.
Washington's policies have so far proven a failure.
Consequently, the Obama administration is currently conducting a deep review of its policies at the highest security, military and political levels. Yet, there is no clear indication that Obama's administration will abandon Bush's policies.
Meanwhile, low-level conflicts will continue in the Middle East.
Sobhi Ghandour is the director of the Al Hewar Centre in Washington.
