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Deep crack opens in Iran polity
Khamenei has taken a more active role in politics to defend Ahmadinejad, but this will have consequences.
- By Francis Matthew, Editor at Large
- Published: 23:05 June 17, 2009
- Image Credit: Illustration: Nino Jose Heredia/Gulf News
The controversy over the vote in Iran's presidential elections has opened a deep crack in Iran's political elite that will have long-lasting implications well beyond granting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term.
The way the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intervened to support Ahmadinejad and to circumvent the Constitution broke the post-revolution Iranian consensus that the Constitution should be respected. In addition, Ahmadinejad's highly personal and insulting campaign against opposition candidate Mir Hussain Mousavi alienated many of his opponents.
It seems that the conservative elite of the Islamic Revolution feared that they were losing ground in an Iran where the population is getting younger by the year, and does not share the harsh ideals of the current rulers. Widespread discussions over the vote last week suggest that Mousavi caught the mood of the moment, but had the election taken away from him by an establishment that does not want to give way.
But on foreign policy, Mousavi agreed with Ahmadinejad that Iran should go ahead with its plans for nuclear power, including enrichment of fuel. This means that US President Barack Obama's administration was going to have to deal with the same problem regardless of who won the election.
Washington has been quiet on the controversy over the election because the long-term aim of Obama's administration is to engage Iran in talks. It realises that plunging into a chaotic internal Iranian debate would not help that long-term strategy.
The UAE and other Gulf states have taken the same line, and necessarily take the election at face value. They see the election as an internal Iranian issue, but one that they would like to see resolved as soon as possible. Iran's neighbours definitely do not want uncertainty and confusion. This is why on the Monday after the Friday elections, both President His Highness Shaikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan and His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, sent messages congratulating Ahmadinejad on winning his second term as president, as did other leaders of Gulf states.
But in Iran the debate is still raging, even if Ahmadinejad is back in power. The way that the Ayatollah acted has upset many people from all sides, and many supporters of both Mousavi and Ahmadinejad have written to express their disquiet over the way the Iranian Constitution has been ignored.
All agreed that there was a very high turnout for the poll on Friday, but by Saturday morning, before the result was clear and certainly before it had been presented to the Council of Guardians (which is required by the Constitution), Khamenei endorsed Ahmadinejad as the winner. This pre-emptive announcement was accompanied by thousands of police and security forces being mobilised on the streets to avoid Mousavi supporters taking matters into their own hands.
By Sunday, Mousavi said he had urged the Council of Guardians to annul the result of Friday's election. However, Ahmadinejad and the Interior Ministry denied allegations of electoral fraud, and Khamenei continued to call on Iranians to support Ahmadinejad. This led to a week of marches in Tehran as an upset population made their feelings known.
Ahmadinejad and his supporters themselves speak of the election as a radical break with the past, with the pro-Ahmadinejad website FarsNews describing the election as the "Third Revolution" (the previous two being the actual Iranian Revolution and the takeover of the US embassy).
The active role played by the Supreme Leader and the Council of Guardians has moved these two positions firmly into the spotlight. For many years they have been careful to stage manage the political arena without being active players. This week that has changed and they will find it hard to step back from active government again.
The constitutional split is compounded by a political divide. Ahmadinejad's four years in power have created a ruling group that is populist and includes people who see themselves as the true heirs of the Islamic Revolution and want its ideas to spread across the world.
This self-perception was spelt out with brutal clarity when Ahmadinejad asked during the live TV debate with his opponent Mousavi, "Is the Rafsanjani aristocracy establishment supposed to perpetuate itself?" He went on to link Mousavi to Rafsanjani in many ways, alleging vested interests, corruption and various other wrongdoing. This highly personal attack was unusual and led both Mousavi and Rafsanjani to defend themselves publicly.
Nonetheless, Ahmadinejad is set to stay in power, despite the opposition mounting various challenges. They are not likely to succeed in changing the result of the election. But the real shift in Iran has reinforced a deep break in the national consensus that will take some time to emerge again in active politics.
Your comments
I think this is what happened in the USA when George w Bush "won" his second term.
Everyone said the results were fixed. But George W. still had his second term.
Burn Unit
Washington,US
Posted: June 18, 2009, 01:19
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