Opinion | Columnists
Challenges ahead for Zardari
The West's war on terror depends on a man with a flawed past and an uncertain future.
- By Ahmad Rashid, Telegraph Group
- Published: 23:28 September 6, 2008
It is a sign of the times in Pakistan that Asif Ali Zardari, the man elected president yesterday, had to move from his heavily fortified house in Islamabad to the even more heavily fortified prime minister's residence. And not a moment too soon. There was an assassination attempt on prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on Wednesday.
Zardari, the controversial widower of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, who spent nine years in jail for corruption, is now the principal target for Al Qaida and the Pakistani Taliban.
His past shenanigans and the fact that he has never held political office are the main concerns of most Pakistanis, but his presidency could determine nothing less than the future of his nuclear-armed state and the West's war on terror.
Pakistan has, since the September 11 attacks, become home to Al Qaida's leadership and a gathering point for the Taliban, who continue to challenge Nato in neighbouring Afghanistan.
The new president's resolve will not only be tested by how he tackles these threats but also by the growing problem of Pakistan's own extremists.
The greatest fear for many is that if Pakistan's civilian government becomes weaker and more discredited in the eyes of the public, it could be toppled by Islamists.
If Zardari succeeds in tackling even some of Pakistan's problems his chequered past may be forgiven, but if he does not, his opponents in the army may bring down the curtain on civilian rule.
Zardari has had many reincarnations. Born in 1955, he grew up in Karachi where he earned a reputation as a playboy, with a disco in his basement. In the 1980s, as the husband of prime minister Benazir Bhutto, he was dubbed Mr Ten Per Cent as stories circulated about alleged commissions earned from business deals.
None of the charges ever stuck - the one conviction he received was overturned - and when he left jail in December 2003 he was hailed a hero by many in his wife's Pakistan Peoples Party for enduring incarceration by President Pervez Musharraf and still being able to joke about it.
Ruthless politician
When Bhutto returned to Pakistan last year she left him behind in Dubai to look after their three children. Nobody expected him to enter frontline politics. But since his wife's murder last December he has had to again reinvent himself - this time as a ruthless, street-smart politician wielding power behind the scenes to hold the PPP together, easing out Musharraf, rebuilding relations with the army and trying to keep his main rival, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, at bay.
Pakistan is a parliamentary democracy but as a result of Musharraf's coup in 1999 the president is all powerful, able to appoint top officials and the army chief as well as dismiss the government. While this massive accumulation of power in Zardari's hands worries many Pakistanis, he sees it as an opportunity to end political bickering so that the government can get on with tackling the two major issues of the economy and terrorism.
Much depends on how he uses his power. His biggest advantage is that the PPP is the only party in the country commanding support in all four provinces.
However, the PPP has had bitter relations with the army for 40 years - partly because it stands for civilian dominance over the military, seeks better relations with the army's traditional foe India and has opposed extremists whom the army has supported in Afghanistan and Kashmir.
An attempt by Zardari in July to curb the powers of the army's Inter-services Intelligence (ISI), which interferes in local politics and directs policy on the extremists, failed miserably.
Washington is betting on both horses, supporting Zardari's election but also keeping close ties with the army chief General Ashfaq Kiyani. So far Kiyani has refused to intervene in politics, but at the same time the army rather than the government controls the on-off war against the Pakistani Taliban.
Zardari has to now wean the army and the ISI away from its past policies, rather than confront it. To do so he has to forge a strong working relationship with Kiyani. There are already signs that Kiyani is undertaking a reshuffle in the army's top ranks, which may also see changes in the ISI.
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