Does Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have reasons to smile just because Chinese President Xi Jinping is flying to Ahmedabad on his birthday? Nobody knows whether the guest of honour is bringing a present for the bearded birthday boy or will merely wish him. But is Xi’s decision to make Modi’s launch-pad the first destination of his September 17-18 state visit to India or is the choice of date an indication that China is courting India?
There is an unmistakable air of optimism in some quarters. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, India’s greatest post-independence spymaster and a true patriot, is predicting an “orbital jump” in Sino-Indian relations under Xi’s and Modi’s leadership. Doval is probably talking about a new partnership among the strategic communities of nuclear neighbours to tackle common threats like terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan. At another level, Trade Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, foresees a “directional change” in business ties with generous Chinese FDI in industrial parks to reduce the shocking trade imbalance across the Himalayas. Bilateral trade rose to $65.9 billion(Dh 241.9 billion) last year, but exports from China accounted for $51 billion!
Mulayam Singh, a former defence minister, ex-chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and a bit of a spoilsport, says he will salute Modi only if he talks Xi into returning nearly 100,000 sqkm of forcibly occupied Indian territory. Singh warns that Modi will be digging his own grave if he reposes his trust in China. The level of distrust is also evident from the blunt remarks of Confederation of Indian Industry’s Tarun Das who characterises China as “assertive, aggressive and arrogant”. The choice of words is rather unusual for an industry spokesman of his standing. Das says that if China’s intentions are noble, it must immediately sign a Free Trade Agreement with India creating a common market of 2.5 billion people that’s unprecedented in global history, instead of non-economic pricing of China’s exports which compel India to take anti-dumping action.
If the truth be told, China is India’s enemy no 1. Previous Bharatiya Janata Party Prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, said so in a written explanation to Washington after conducting nuclear tests. Sino-Indian enmity dates back to the 1962 war which shattered India’s confidence after a humiliating defeat. Since then China has been labelled an enemy country whose missions and diplomats are subjected to 24x7 surveillance. Till today, the lion’s share of India’s defence budget is spent on guarding the country against the People’s Liberation Army. Many in the security establishment believe that Pakistan is just a distraction — the real threat is China.
In such a stressful security scenario, fast-tracking business relations — which seems to be the main goal of the Xi-Modi summit — surely can’t transform simmering hostility into friendship and erase a long and bitter history of mutual suspicion bordering on hatred.
I would advise Modi to look Xi in the eye and tell him that China’s political bullying — manifested in frequent border violations and belittling India in multilateral forums — and commercial intimidation like non-tariff barriers on Indian exports and non-economic pricing of China’s exports must stop forthwith. Of course this is easier said than done because of the sheer power at Xi’s command. America is on the decline and China’s rise to global superpower is unstoppable. Before 2020, China’s share of the global GDP would surpass America’s, crowning the former as the world’s biggest economy.
China and India grew at the same economic pace until 1980. But since then China’s growth has outstripped India’s fourfold and is now threatening to knock off the US from its perch as the richest nation. But it badly hurts my nationalist pride that India has agreed to become China’s new low-cost labour hub. The industrial parks that Nirmala Sitharaman is crowing about are nothing but glorified sweatshops run by a rich country in a poorer part of the world to recycle some of its staggering export surpluses into investment.
That China treats India no different from Vietnam or other southeast Asian countries is evident from a Forbes report which doesn’t mince its words unlike India’s Economic Times or Business Standard: as China becomes a more higher-end, value added producer, India will serve as a new hub for low skilled workers making things for the Chinese; India hopes to be what China once was — a source of low-cost labour, making widgets and sneakers and Happy Meal toys for the world to enjoy; only unlike the Chinese that opened doors to American multinationals, Indians are opening their borders to Chinese corporations.
Even if Modi swallows his pride for the sake of millions of jobless Indians salivating at the thought of Chinese industrial parks, he must put his foot down on stapled visas when he sits across Xi. China has been issuing these unorthodox visas to Indians from Arunachal Pradesh which Beijing claims as its territory. Chinese visas are normally pasted on Indian passports but applicants from Arunachal Pradesh are issued visas on papers stapled to their passports. China issues stapled visas also to Indians from Jammu & Kashmir to please its close ally, Pakistan.
By the way, Xi will be accompanied by a Chinese more famous than him – his wife Peng Liyuan. The First Lady was an ordinary PLA soldier who became a national celebrity thanks to her singing on China Central Television. She exudes soft power by her husband’s side and has been compared to Michelle Obama. Unfortunately, India has nothing to match Peng’s charisma as Modi abandoned his wife long ago to pursue higher goals in life.
S. N. M. Abdi is a noted Indian journalist and commentator. He can be contacted at snmabdi@yahoo.com
