While many are in no doubt that Abdul Fattah Al Sissi will win the presidential elections in Egypt, come May 25-26, many are also extremely worried about just how will he handle the political, economic and social quagmire the country finds itself in. One question being asked is: Will the former general, field marshal, army boss and first deputy prime minister be able to handle what is effectively a political crisis with the Muslim Brotherhood, other political parties and issues of plurality, democratisation and human rights? In addition, how will he handle the debt-ridden economy, double-digit inflation, soaring unemployment (especially among the youth, estimated at a high 25 per cent) and the depressed wages? Finally, how will he handle the poverty situation — 50 per cent of the population of 85 million is said to be poor.
Putting an end to all this was the original demand during the Arab Spring, which first started with the removal of Zine Al Abidine Bin Ali in Tunisia in January 2011 and the removal of Hosni Mubarak a month later.
On the threshold of an election campaign due to start officially on May 2, Al Sissi has papered over the vital issues facing the country and affecting Egyptian society. Until now, he has not been willing to present an election manifesto, arguing he would do so in good time and preferring to continue to ride the popularity wave after his July 3, 2013, ouster of president Mohammad Mursi. In the months following the coup, his popularity soared sky-high among people despite the fact that rights were curtailed and government permission was needed to hold public demonstrations and workers’ rights were muzzled in the workplace.
In January 2014, an opinion poll by the Egyptian Centre for Public Opinion Research, Baseera, noted that 50 per cent of the public would vote for Al Sissi if he stood for president. A similar poll in mid-March put the figure at 39 per cent, still relatively high in relation to what the “personality cult” surrounding Al Sissi, the field marshal who put away his military stripes and turned to a track suit and a bicycle, roaming the streets of Cairo to begin his election campaign in earnest — a first for an Arab politician. This was the culmination of grooming in the media and military PR machine, despite the fact that he dealt in a very strong manner with his chief opponents, the Muslim Brotherhood, many of whose members were shot and leaders — along with 16,000 opposition supporters — were imprisoned.
Many are asking: What will become of them and if it is prudent for Al Sissi to start his rule with what has become a society based on discontent and alienation? Wouldn’t it be better to start a process of reconciliation and even set free those Islamists he sent to prison? Another issue is whether the iron-fist approach and the continual banning of the Brothers be favourable for continual rule, even if he does have the backing of the two-million strong Egyptian military, which also controls large chunks of the economy, with some experts putting the figure at 40 per cent of the country’s gross national product.
However, even with the army’s muscle power in the country — controlling vast industries, economic enterprises, state-holdings and lucrative deals with the government and tax exemptions — there are more pressing macro-economic issues to consider. These concern the public sector, state budget, bourgeoning bureaucracy, subsidies and the problems of finding enough petroleum and gas to feed industries and economies.
The government’s fiscal profile is problematic as 25 per cent of the state budget goes into paying public salaries and 50 per cent to debt servicing at $268 billion (Dh985.7 billion) or 107 per cent of gross domestic product and government subsidies. Al Sissi, of course, realises these challenges and cannot but face them in the run-up to the presidential elections and afterwards. Many are placing their bets on him winning. In fact, realising this, and notwithstanding the Al Sissi mania that swept the country in the past few months — with his pictures on placards, memorabilia, biscuits and T-shirts — ever since Mursi’s ouster, Al Sissi and the government he appointed started making overtures to Europe and the US for increased aid. But this was to no avail because of the way Al Sissi came to power.
Such support was seen as vital to keep the public coffers running when the state of industry and tourism — major revenue injectors — deteriorated. By 2013, for instance, there were five million less tourists with revenue declining to $5.8 billion from the $12.5 billion in 2010. Tourists are a major source of foreign currency.
However, Egypt turned to its Arab supporters — Saudi Arabia pledged $5 billion, UAE with $7 billion and Kuwait $4 billion. They all came to the rescue, replacing Qatar, which had earlier backed Mursi.
This is the glaring picture and reality facing Al Sissi as he stands for president and starts to face the difficulties involved in ruling Egypt.
Marwan Asmar is a commentator based in Amman. He has long worked in journalism and has a Phd in Political Science from Leeds University in the UK.
