Even if the alleged high security threat by Al Qaida against US and foreign diplomatic missions in 19 Arab and Muslim countries failed to materialise or was thwarted, the fact is that this notorious terror organisation had won this latest round. The US security alert was the biggest since the 9/11 attacks 12 years ago. It was so serious that a number of European countries closed their embassies in Yemen and evacuated diplomatic personnel as well.
But the attack, possibly in Yemen, never took place. Instead the Yemeni authorities revealed that they had foiled plans by Al Qaida to take over two cities and industrial facilities in troubled governorates. Earlier US officials had confirmed that intelligence agencies had intercepted calls between Al Qaida leader Ayman Al Zawahiri and head of the organisation’s affiliate in the Arabian Peninsula in which the former gave orders to carry out a major terrorist attack against US interests.
The US reaction underlined the seriousness of the threat. Washington closed embassies in stable and safe countries, but it also said a lot about America’s war on Al Qaida, more than a decade after it was launched. It brought to mind the heavy cost of that war, not only in financial terms — estimated in trillions of dollars — but also politically, culturally and legally. Few talk today about the hefty price tag of that war which includes the invasion and occupation of two Muslim countries resulting in hundreds of thousands of casualties, the introduction of laws and secret programmes that infringe on citizens’ constitutional rights in most world countries, among others.
No one wants to talk about the real cost of the war to the Iraqi people, whose country, 10 years after the US invasion, is closer than it has ever been to becoming a failed state. Not a day passes in Iraq without a terror attack that claims the lives of tens of victims. US troops have left Baghdad but the country is sinking deeper in a morass of chaos, corruption, sectarian killing and political squabbling.
The same can be said of Afghanistan where the Taliban, long-time allies of Al Qaida, appear to have the upper hand in their struggle against the US backed government and Nato troops.
The world has changed dramatically after 9/11, but the legacy of the war on terror continues to haunt us. Today, two years after the killing of Al Qaida founder Osama Bin Laden, the organisation is active in more countries and regions than it was more than a decade ago. US President Barack Obama confirmed this week that Al Qaida’s affiliates constitute an ongoing threat. The organisation has manifested itself in regions that stretch from Pakistan to Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Sinai, Libya, Algeria, Mali, Somalia and Nigeria. And inspite of international cooperation, hi-tech intelligence surveillance and drone attacks, it is still able to carry out terrorist operations in many countries of the world.
Today it has revived itself in Iraq, infiltrated into Syria, established a base in Sinai and is active in the Sahara region. It has been able to recruit fighters in Europe, Central Asia and southern Arabia. Twelve years on, Al Zawahiri is still at large and his organisation remains buoyant.
Iraq was a bad diversion in the war on terror. It allowed Al Qaida to penetrate that country, allying itself with victimised Sunnis, and opening up another battlefront against western invaders. US objectives got muddled in Afghanistan.
It backed a corrupt government and turned public opinion against it through indiscriminate attacks against innocent civilians. It had no game plan in Somalia or Yemen. It failed to understand the deep-seated cultural differences in areas where it chose to intervene.
In Iraq, its occupation created new problems and opened fresh wounds. It triggered sectarian confrontations because it implemented a flawed political system. In Afghanistan and Pakistan, it had failed to appreciate the power of political Islam and jihadist beliefs in rural areas. Taking out local chieftains and violating Pakistani sovereignty did not help. In Syria, where Islamist rebels allied to Al Qaida fought against the regime of Bashar Al Assad, the US was too slow to act. It had abandoned secular forces for fear that the jihadists would finally win the day.
Flawed US policies in the region, stretching from Libya to Pakistan, have helped Al Qaida find new recruits. Today that organisation is more powerful than it was a decade or more ago. Its threat now extends to new countries like Jordan, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon. The military coup in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhood rule will eventually drive more young Muslim men to extremism.
The sectarian wars in Syria and Iraq will help boost Al Qaida’s fortunes. The organisation claims that it is fighting to defend Sunnis against a Shiite onslaught. This further complicates the drive to weaken and defeat it.
Al Qaida has survived the initial assault against it. The US drone attacks in Yemen, Pakistan and other countries will not destroy the organisation’s ability to regroup and recruit more fighters. That kind of terrorism will grow as extremist groups extend their influence in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Jordan and other countries. The embassy closures are a reminder that Al Qaida’s presence has not waned in the past few years. In fact for most countries in the region it remains a clear and present danger.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
