The Syrian regime is on a losing wicket. The whole world knows it — all except Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad and his gang that is. They have not only displayed unconscionable viciousness, they are clearly suffering from chronic stupidity. In the 17 months since the uprising began, they’ve cut Syria’s population by 20,000, made foes out of allies, crippled the economy and are now in the process of demolishing the country’s cities ostensibly to root out terrorist elements in the pay of foreign powers. Any “victory” they can achieve, based on sheer military might, will be pyrrhic.
Their army and militias have committed massacres and turned swathes of Homs, Daraa and Hama into blood-stained rubble. As I write, helicopter gunships are pounding areas of Syria’s largest city Aleppo. They will commit any atrocity to hold on to power even to the extent of converting Syria into a wasteland. Al Assad hardly blinked when opposition forces bombed and killed his defence minister and deputy defence minister, his own brother-in-law. He instantly replaced them. I’m beginning to think that the Syrian leader, a man I once admired for standing against those who ravaged neighbouring Iraq, has been replaced by an unfeeling cyborg with a wife more interested in Louboutins than saving children from being mutilated.
The regime has to be made up of dimwits to boast about their country’s stock of chemical weapons, poised for use in case of foreign intervention. How could it have escaped their attention that weapons of mass destruction in the possession of a ruthless dictator was the casus belli — false as it transpired — on which the invasion of Iraq was launched? That little snippet was a game changer. Until then, there was an argument for saying the trouble in Syria was an internal affair — albeit spurious, when more than 150,000 Syrians fleeing the government onslaught have sought refuge in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. No more.
That admission is a virtual invitation to Israel to step in; Israel, which didn’t hesitate to bomb an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and a nuclear facility in northern Syria during September 2007. Alternatively, perhaps there is method in Al Assad’s madness. If the Israelis are to join the fray, it is likely the opposition will rally behind the Syrian government against a common enemy.
Predictably, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet are making preparations for any contingency. Fox News has reported that Israeli soldiers are ready to move in while, in recent weeks, there has been a 66 per cent rise in civilians seeking gas masks. The Israeli government is uncomfortable about Al Assad’s chemical weapons and is also concerned that in the event the Syrian regime falls, those weapons could reach the hands of Lebanese fighter group Hezbollah. While Hezbollah has broadly supported revolutions elsewhere in the Arab world, it remains firmly on the side of the Syrian regime that has permitted Syria to be a conduit for Hezbollah’s cash and weapons courtesy Iran. Were the mainly Alawite leadership to be ousted, democratic elections would bring in a Sunni-dominated parliament that would, no doubt, leave Hezbollah hemmed-in and isolated.
So why does Al Assad presume to thumb his nose at the US, the EU, the UN, the Arab League as well as the 70 nations that form the Friends of the Syrian People, which are all clamouring for an end to the violence — and think he can get away with it?
In a word, the answer is Vladimir Putin. The Russian president bitterly regrets the breaking up of the Soviet Union and his country’s acquiescence to the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq that resulted in the mushrooming of US military bases throughout the Middle East, the Gulf and the Caspian. Moscow sees Syria as the last bastion of Russian regional influence and, partnered with China, is determined to keep the West from muscling in. Russia’s wielding of three of its UN Security Council vetoes to block international censure of the Syrian regime has emboldened Al Assad. The Russians have been wilfully myopic on the horrors that play out all over Syria each day and have added insult to injury by urging western and Arab nations to pressure insurgents to give up their struggle. “How can one expect that the Syrian government will say, ‘Yes, go ahead, overthrow me,’” said the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov. Putin has been arming the Al Assad regime and refusing to comply with EU sanctions that demand inspection of ships heading to Syrian ports.
Russia seems committed, but just how gung-ho will Putin be to preserve the Al Assad gang if Israel becomes party to the conflict? Would Moscow dare to take on the IDF or be seen to be attacking Israel that perceives Syria’s chemical weapons as yet another existential threat? In any event, the US, the UK and France would come to Israel’s aid. Would Putin ignite Third World War for his buddy Al Assad? Doubt it!
Russia has already announced it is contemplating evacuating its naval base at Tartous and has expressed concerns about Al Assad’s ability to stay the course. When push comes to shove, Al Assad will be lucky if the Russians spirit him out to a Dacha in Siberia, far from the clutches of the International Criminal Court.
Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She can be contacted at lheard@gulfnews.com Some of the comments may be considered for publication.
