The March 30 local elections in Turkey are dealt with by most of the competing political parties as a make-or-break battle. Opposition forces, secular and religious, seem keen on ending almost 12 years of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) monopoly of power. While 25 political parties will be eligible to compete, according to the High Election Commission, “the big four” in the current parliament will run the show. They are: The ruling liberal Islamist AKP, with 320 seats out of a total of 550; the Republican People’s Party (CHP), representing the Kemalist-nationalist forces in the country, with 134 seats; the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), with a right-wing nationalist stance and 52 seats; and the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), supportive of Kurdish rights, with 26 seats.
Usually, local elections do not carry much political weight in Turkey, yet the conflict between the Ruling AKP and the Hizmet movement, a Sufi Islam organisation headed by the influential religious figure Fethullah Gulen, is creating so much interest in these elections in and outside Turkey. While Hizmet is not a political party and hence cannot compete in the elections, it can nevertheless affect them given its significant social, educational and media influence. Before the current conflict, the movement supported the AKP in all previous elections.
Founded half a century ago, Hizmet is one of the most influential religious groups in Turkey. Although it started as a social organisation, its goals and activities gradually changed, placing it at the heart of Turkey’s political life. Hizmet runs more than 500 schools in some 92 towns nation-wide and owns a vast media network, including TV channels, newspapers, radio stations and websites. The movement supports welfare and charity organisations too, winning it considerable public support including within the judiciary and the police.
Despite the recent arms-twisting, the AKP does not seem interested in antagonising the Sufi movement in the run-up to the elections. It has tried to prevent a marriage of convenience between Hizmet and the secular opposition parties amidst media reports that the CHP is wooing the religious movement into supporting it in these elections. Indeed, an open alliance between the ultra-secular and anti-Islamist CHP and the Hizmet religious movement is difficult to forge. Notwithstanding the animosity with the Islamists AKP, the intellectual and historical background of the CHP will make it impossible for Hizmet’s members to vote for it. Yet, the secular opposition will be content if Hizmet calls upon its supporters to abstain. That alone may slightly affect the chances of the AKP in the major cities where the competition is fiercest.
As election day approaches, the main opposition party, the CHP, aspires to take the mayor positions in Istanbul and Ankara, whose joint population represents more than one quarter of Turkey’s total population (76 million). To achieve this, the CHP has brought candidates popular amongst the right-leaning populations of Istanbul and Ankara. The AKP is planning to retaliate by trying to win in the Izmir metropolitan municipality, which is viewed as a CHP stronghold. The AKP’s candidate for mayor of Izmir is former minister of transport and communications, Binali Yildirim. In Adana, Mersin, Antalya and Hatay, the chances of big parties are more or less equal. Competition is most intense between the AKP and the BDP in southeast Anatolia, where the AKP is trying to grab Diyarbakir from the BDP, which will in turn try to clinch Sanliurfa and Mardin, currently held by the AKP. The MHP is aiming to maintain its electoral successes as an alternative option for right-wing voters alongside the AKP. At the same time, the ruling party aspires to make gains in provinces under MHP control, such as Isparta.
The corruption scandals that haunted the AKP government in recent months and led to a major cabinet reshuffle in December 2013, will undoubtedly affect the decision of the Turkish voters in the forthcoming elections. According to several recent opinion polls, significant parts of the Turkish public believe that rampant corruption exists in state institutions. If Hizmet supporters also vote against it, the AKP will have to lose in certain municipalities.
Two factors, however, will help save it from an outright electoral defeat. The first is that while voters in general tend to criticise their own parties, they in most cases remain loyal unless they lose faith in the ideological inclinations of their parties and start believing in the principles of others. Second, when it comes to local elections, voters tend to vote for the most efficient parties in providing public services in local communities rather than for their nation-wide agenda.
Having said that, one will have to wait and see how successful Turkey’s opposition parties have been in exploiting the troubles of their arch rival — the AKP.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is the dean of the Faculty of International Relations and Diplomacy at the University of Kalamoon, Damascus.
