Opinion | Columnists
Aggravating the situation
The recent unrest in Lebanon was designed to get the army into a fight with Hezbollah.
- By Ahmad Mustafa, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 00:45 February 10, 2008
The recent protests, during which eight people were shot dead in Lebanon, did not flare up into full-scale civil war, mainly due to the swift and sound decision by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to control his followers. Someone was under orders from unknown people, who wanted to send a reminder that the 1975-90 civil war had started in the same district of Beirut where the recent shootings took place.
I remember what a friend, who took part in that war and survived it, told me about the Israeli occupation forces' tactics. When the Israelis wanted two groups to finish each other off, they would fire two mortar shells, one in each direction, luring the two groups into a fight with each other.
The tactic seems to have been borrowed during the recent unrest. The demonstrators were shot dead while the Lebanese army was trying to disperse protesters and opening a main road blocked by them.
Many protests before, for similar reasons - like power rationing - ended peacefully. So why was blood spilled this time?
The army might have come under attack - not necessarily from the mainly Shiite demonstrators. It may have responded. Or maybe snipers on rooftops targeted Hezbollah and Amal followers. The possibilities are many, but it is up to the Lebanese authorities to investigate.
Yet, the political question has a simple answer: it was meant to drag the army into a fight with Hezbollah.
That incident was contained, thanks to the wisdom of both parties. But there is no guarantee that it will not be repeated. Aggravating the situation seems to be too tempting for those who are not able to impose a solution on Lebanon. They also want to take away public sympathy from the opposition.
That doesn't mean the opposition is made up of saints who will turn the other cheek. But at least until now the opposition has managed to "control" the situation and keep the struggle political and non-violent.
Same temptation
Meanwhile, they stick to their position of not accepting a solution drafted in English or French, even if an Arab League translation is on the table. There is no alternative to a Syrian translation of a Persian draft solution.
The same temptation to aggravate the situation by luring factions into a fight triggered by others' bullets, was repeated on the Egyptian border with Palestine. Egypt has long maintained a level of contact with Hamas in Gaza, as a last way of keeping itself relevant in any Israeli-Palestinian settlement.
Unfortunately, Cairo recently fell for the bait, before recognising the trap. When international sympathy for the Palestinians was building after Israel completed the strangulation of Gaza, Cairo decided to ease the pressure from its side - sending a message to the Americans that they still have things to do. Now, the issue is the border control and not the Israeli killing of Palestinians, either by direct fire or through the siege.
Two hotspots on the borders of Israel are not a mere coincidence, as the two - Gaza and Lebanon - are still "officially" at war with the Jewish state. If you cannot change situation in the two spots to your liking, the last resort is to aggravate them.
US President George W. Bush is coming back in May to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the creation of the Jewish state in Palestine. Tony Blair, the Quartet envoy, will be waiting for him in Occupied Jerusalem - and they may be joined by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.
Most probably no Arab leaders will participate, and Bush knows the reason from Israeli intelligence reports - it is because they fear Hezbollah and Hamas.
The Americans and Israelis want to get rid of these two factions, which believe in "irrelevant historical slogans" like independence, liberation, sovereignty and national dignity.
But are the Arabs ready to "finish" the only card they still hold in negotiating a lasting solution to the region's main conflict?
Some of them are, but there are still others who think of how history is going to record their actions. They are not necessarily bound by the wishful thinking of Bush or Blair.
Dr Ahmad Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer.
Opinion Editor's choice
-
Russia, China complicit in Syria carnage
By Fawaz Turki, Special to Gulf News
By their double veto at the UN, they have chosen to back the Al Assad regime that is already wet spaghetti
-
Two prime ministers in trouble
By Kuldip Nayar, Special to Gulf News
Gilani faces contempt of court charge while Singh encounters moral responsibility in 2G scam case
-
Moving towards honest democracy
By Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of Russia
Russia needs to unbundle power and property and separate executive power from system of checks over it
Your turn
