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A thaw in US-Iran ties?
Economic meltdown has given Obama a vital tool to tip the scales in the Middle East.
- By Mohammad Akef Jamal, Special to Gulf News
- Published: 23:17 December 14, 2008
The hostile relations between the US and Iran took a turn for the worse after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors became suspicious about Iran's nuclear programme in the past two years. The downslide was more steep than it was at the time of the Khomenist Revolution and during the take-over of the US embassy by Iranian students in 1980.
The tension between Tehran and Washington reached a breaking point when President George W. Bush threatened to use the military to force Iran to give up its nuclear programme. However, with the election of Barack Obama, the ties seem to be improving as the US president-elect is clearly more flexible in his Iran policy, which has elements of accommodating and engaging the Islamic Republic.
Iran reciprocated the gesture by sending a congratulatory message to Obama for his victory in the presidential race, even though the two countries have had no diplomatic ties for nearly 30 years.
Despite Tehran not receiving an acknowledgment to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's congratulatory letter, Iran sent another missive wherein it has indirectly extended its support for the Status Of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the US and Iraq. This new Iranian stance is an antithesis of its initial opposition to the SOFA agreement.
Cautious optimism
Obama's victory has been warmly welcomed in Iran, where there is cautious optimism that he will help improve relations between the two arch enemies. Iran also feels that it is off the hook, even if temporarily. As such there is optimism in Iran that relations between the two countries will improve considerably. However, it is too early for such a positive outlook because Obama has clearly said that the US would not turn a blind eye to any controversial Iranian nuclear activity.
Later, he did say that he is prepared to offer Iran economic incentives to stop its nuclear programme, but he also warned that sanctions could be toughened if Tehran refuses to comply with its demands.
Most political analysts believe that Obama will be in no hurry to reach an agreement with Tehran, despite having a better chance to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear programme without resorting to the use of military force.
The global economic meltdown has given Obama a vital tool to tip the scales in the Middle East. The oil price crash, in addition to its being an opening for the US and its European allies to break through their financial crises, is also a pressure element that may be exerted on oil exporting countries, such as Iran. If the US and its allies fail to obtain a UN resolution in that direction, they may well persuade oil importing countries to cease buying Iranian oil; like they did in the 1950s when the Dr Mohammad Mosaddeq's government nationalised the oil industry, and the West succeeded in overthrowing his government.
In such an eventuality, Ahmadinejad's government will face a major economic problem. Currently, inflation has risen by 25 per cent and the rate of unemployment is growing. It will seriously jeopardise Ahmadinejad's chances of re-election in 2009, and can pave the way for a moderate government that will not find it difficult to accept the terms of the US and the international community.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
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