The global order is in disarray. The world is sliding into significant disorder with no international structure capable of handling the kinds of problems that are likely to erupt almost simultaneously. To compound it all, chaos among the major powers could generate truly disastrous consequences. So far, President Donald Trump has failed to formulate any significant, relevant statements about the global condition. Instead, the world has been left to interpret the sometimes irresponsible, uncoordinated and ignorant statements of his team.
Self-promoters seeking important positions should not be permitted to create the impression that their sometimes simplistic and extremist terminology is becoming national policy. The recent public embarrassment over US policy toward the Kremlin, culminating in the resignation of Michael T. Flynn as national security adviser after just 24 days in the job, speaks for itself. While we did not support Trump, he is the president of the United States. He is our president, and we want him to be a success. Right now, he does not look like that to the rest of the world, or to us. A vulnerable world needs an America characterised by clarity of thought and leadership that projects optimism and progress. ‘Make America Great Again’ and ‘America First’ are all very well as bumper stickers, but the foreign policy of the United States needs to be more than a campaign slogan.
So we would advise the president to give an address that offers a bold statement of his vision, including his determination to provide the United States’ leadership in the effort to shape a more stable world. This speech should not be a detailed blueprint for US foreign policy, but rather serve as a much-needed reminder that the president of the United States is on watch, is actively engaged and has a sense of historical direction.
What we need to hear from our president is why America is important to the world and why the world needs America. At the same time, he can take advantage of the opportunity to point out what the United States expects from the world.
We may disagree with Trump on day-to-day decisions, but we urge him to recognise that the ideal long-term solution is one in which the three militarily dominant powers — the United States, China and Russia — work together to support global stability. Much hinges on the degree to which the United States and China can engage in successful dialogue. This would open the way for a more serious, strategic Sino-American understanding. That, in turn, could create the basis for a more lasting understanding among all three major powers, since Russia would realise that if it were not included in a Sino-American accommodation, its interests would be at risk.
America must also be mindful of the danger that China and Russia could form a strategic alliance. For this reason, the United States must take care not to act toward China as if it were a subordinate: This would almost guarantee a closer tie between China and Russia. More immediately worrying is the problem posed by North Korea, which will require increased cooperation among North Korea’s more powerful neighbours, including China and Japan (and potentially Russia), as well as the United States. Isolated US efforts are unlikely to move Pyongyang in a positive direction.
If the United States is to improve its relationship with Russia, it must renew both sides’ acknowledgement that a commitment to abide by law is central to the international order. A superficial show of better relations must not be a cover for deception, manoeuvring or violence against weaker neighbours. Trump’s desire for constructive engagement with Russia is sensible, but there has to be a framework of acceptable conduct that, unfortunately, does not exist at present. Russia is confronted by non-Russian former Soviet republics like Ukraine and Uzbekistan consolidating their independence, while China’s economic penetration of central Asia has also reduced Russia’s role in that region. The stakes for all three major powers are high, but so are the potential rewards — and they know it In the near term, America should aim for specific regional agreements with partners like Japan and Britain, as these relationships will be essential for managing regional affairs. In this regard, the administration’s steps to reaffirm the United States’ commitment to defend Japan and South Korea are encouraging. But as the lynchpin of Nato, the United States must also be ready to defend western and central Europe. With his background, Trump knows the power of business. The United States should make clear to Russia that any military incursion into Europe, including the “little green men” tactics seen at the beginning of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, would incur a punitive blockade of Russia’s maritime access to the West that would affect nearly two-thirds of all Russian seaborne trade
Given the Trump administration’s abysmal performance so far in installing a leadership capable of strategic decision-making, it is crucial that America and the world hear a vision of leadership and commitment from our president. A Trump Doctrine, any doctrine more or less, is sorely needed.
— New York Times News Service
Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser from 1977-81, is a trustee at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, where Paul Wasserman is a research associate.
