The sight of exhausted Ukrainian troops abandoning the besieged town of Debaltseve betrayed how quickly and completely the Minsk ceasefire agreement has unravelled. Only on February 12, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, hailed a “glimmer of hope” when all parties promised to silence the guns and, most importantly, freeze the frontline between Ukrainian forces and their Russian-backed enemies. Yet the separatists have simply grabbed more of eastern Ukraine, continuing the pattern whereby they advance inexorably, field by field and town by town, regardless of any ceasefire.
Two questions now contend for pride of place: how much further will the rebels go? And what can Ukraine do in response? On the face of it, the pro-Russian leadership has already answered the first question. Their stated aim is to capture all of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. If so, their advance has much further to run. Further up the E40 highway from Debaltseve lie towns such as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which the rebels controlled at the outset of their rising last year. If the insurgents are to be taken seriously, then these could be the next dominos to fall. But this is not quite inevitable. The separatists might decide that Debaltseve’s fall leaves them with enough territory and a defensible front line. There would be a powerful military argument for halting their spearpoint while they hold the advantage. Who will take this decision — the rebels in Ukraine, or President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin?
Last summer, Russia sent thousands of combat troops over the border to halt a Ukrainian counter-offensive that might otherwise have regained the lost territory. Most of those forces have since left the country. Today, Russia does not have infantry battalions in eastern Ukraine, but “hundreds” of special forces soldiers from the Spetsnaz and GRU military intelligence, according to Douglas Lute, the US ambassador to Nato. They operate advanced weapons systems and run a “parallel chain of command” stretching back to Moscow. These highly trained operatives amount to Russia’s instrument of control over the rebellion.
Impossible predicament
Now that a choice must be made — to consolidate or advance — Putin could use them to enforce his will. Whatever the decision, Ukraine can do precious little in response. President Petro Poroshenko now finds himself in an impossible predicament. Whenever Ukrainian forces have gained ground against the rebels, Putin has sent combat troops over the border to rescue his friends. Even without deploying infantry battalions, Russia can always compensate the rebels for their defeats. If they happen to lose a convoy of armoured vehicles, the Kremlin can simply provide them with more.
One side in this conflict benefits from an endless supply of reinforcements — and, when necessary, the firepower of one of the biggest military machines in the world. Ukraine, meanwhile, has a regular army of only 64,000 soldiers. Poroshenko’s government is so short of money that friendly oligarchs have raised and funded their own militias to take on the rebels.
Unable to recapture the lost territory, Poroshenko’s only option is to reach an agreement with Putin that would at least prevent more of Ukraine from being swallowed up. Yet, time and again, Putin simply breaks the deal.
With the collapse of the second Minsk accord, Poroshenko has run out of options.
— The Telegraph Group Limited, London, 2015
