In the war against Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), the position of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is laced with contradictions. On one hand, the leader of a country regarded as a key Nato ally professes to be committed to destroying the Islamist fanatics who are attempting to establish their hate-filled caliphate across the border in neighbouring Syria.
US air force F-16 fighters and drones regularly fly combat missions from Turkey’s southern Incirlik air base, while the Turks have even launched attacks of their own against Daesh positions in Syria.
And yet, for all Erdogan’s constant claims that Turkey is the “top target for all terrorist groups in the region”, strong suspicions remain that he is guilty of double standards for turning a blind eye to highly lucrative smuggling activities across the Turkish border. It is highly unlikely that Daesh would be able to sustain its attempts to establish its caliphate without the continuous flow of funds and new recruits that regularly cross the border. But despite repeated demands from its Nato allies that Turkey act to close Daesh’s smuggling routes, Ankara has been reluctant to move decisively. It is the same with Turkey’s half-hearted response to the migrant crisis that now threatens the security of Europe’s borders.
The vast majority of the million or so migrants who have flooded Europe during the past year have travelled to the continent by making the treacherous crossing over the Aegean Sea from Turkey to EU member states such as Greece. To stop this flood of human misery, EU leaders last November pledged more than £2 billion in emergency aid to Turkey in return for a commitment from Ankara that it would crack down on the people-smuggling gangs who enable this pernicious trade to flourish. But while Erdogan has been more than happy to accept the EU’s cash, he has been less interested in curbing the exodus, with one senior EU official warning that the current flow of migrants to Europe — estimated at 2,000 to 3,000 arriving every day — is “still way too high”.
The question Erdogan now faces is whether, in the wake of Wednesday’s suicide bombing in Istanbul by a suspected Daesh terrorist that killed at least 10 people and injured many more, he can continue to maintain his decidedly ambivalent approach to the Syria crisis. Any assistance the Turkish authorities may have provided to Daesh will have been on the basis that the Islamist fighters are at war with the Kurds, whom the Turks regard as a far greater threat to their long-term security.
A tacit understanding like this — such as the Turks turning a blind eye to Daesh’s smuggling operations — works only so long as Daesh does not pose a direct threat to Turkey’s own security interests.
If, as now seems likely, Daesh was behind the Istanbul bombing, then the terrorists have clearly crossed an important red line for the Turks, one that could have a profound impact on the future of the US-led coalition’s military campaign to destroy Daesh.
A great deal of attention has focused in recent weeks on the importance of countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia in resolving the Syria crisis. Shia Iran is committed, with the support of its Russian allies, to the survival of the Al Assad regime, while Sunni Saudi Arabia wants to secure the defeat of both Al Assad and Daesh, a commitment that has acquired significantly more force since the recent formation of the 34-member Saudi-led anti-Daesh coalition. But while the ambitions of both these regional superpowers should not be underestimated, Turkey potentially has an even more pivotal role to play — assuming, that is, that Erdogan can make up his mind whose side he is on in Syria’s brutal conflict. Closing all crossings along the Turkish border with Daesh-controlled Syria, for example, could have a devastating impact on the financial wellbeing of Daesh, which relies heavily on revenues generated by its oil-smuggling operations into Turkey.
Without these, many experts in the region believe the so-called caliphate would collapse in a matter of weeks. A more committed approach by Erdogan could also help to stem the flood of migrants to Europe, thereby easing the pressure on governments from the Balkans to Berlin. In order to play a more constructive role in resolving the Syrian crisis, though, Erdogan must first get over his obsession with the Kurds, the one group that has provided effective ground forces in the war against Daesh.
The Turkish government fears that any victories the Kurds enjoy over Daesh, such as last year’s success in liberating Daesh-controlled Kobani, will encourage Kurdish aspirations for independence, when the reality is that the Kurds’ main objective in Syria is simply to reclaim their territory from Daesh. After the terror attacks in Istanbul, Erdogan should realise the Kurds are the least of his problems and that, if he wants to prevent further terror attacks, then his best course of action is to support the international campaign to destroy Daesh.
— Telegraph Group Limited, London 2016
