Supporters of Britain remaining in the European Union (EU) have one week to reverse the small swing to the Leave side. Most people have already made up their minds, but the debate is still very close and even though one poll has given the Leave campaign a seven-point advantage, all the other polls show the difference to be only a point or two. This places huge pressure on both sides to reach the 11 to 15 per cent of undecided Britons who have also said that they want to vote.
The powerful European vision of nations working together across a continent to support shared democratic and inclusive values has been blurred by a poor Remain campaign led by a duplicitous prime minister and a Labour leader who has been deeply equivocal about his support for the EU. But the message is more important than its inadequate messengers, and there is still time to get that message out. It does not help that the debate has disintegrated into a sterile exchange of facts and figures as both sides lob numbers at each other. The Remain side needs to trigger a more emotional appeal about the positives of Europe that counteracts the xenophobic message of the Leave position. This is not a complex set of arguments like in a general election where there is a mass of different issues allowing voters to remain mixed. This referendum is a stark choice between in or out.
In getting the undecided voters to come to a decision, the Remain side needs to be sure that they know that the Leave side have been shamefully silent about their confused vision for what happens if Britain leaves the EU. The Leave side has deliberately focused on the immediate process of Britain regaining “sovereignty” over its decision-making, and it has failed to outline what kind of decisions they would like Britain to make if it does leave. This is like locking the front door of the house, but refusing to tell the family where you will take them in the car. The Leave campaigners have been largely silent about the decades of uncertainty that Britain will face if it leaves as it struggles to find a new (and insignificant) place in the global order.
By dodging this overwhelmingly gloomy side of their narrow campaign, the Leave message has had an effect. Polly Toynbee of the Guardian has described how she spent time in Nottingham and the London suburb of Barking, campaigning for Remain among Labour supporters. She found that people had made up their minds to leave the EU based on three issues: “Immigrants were first; the mythical £350 million [Dh1.82 billion] saving on money sent to Brussels was second; and ‘I want my country back’ was third. And finally there was, ‘I don’t know ANYONE voting in’.”
Positive and negative messages
Talking to her fellow Labour Party members she tried to argue with facts and got nowhere. She even warned them of the dangers of a Conservative government run by Boris Johnson as prime minister and supported by Michael Gove, and they did not care. They had bought the Leave message and could not be budged.
So attracting the 11 to 15 per cent of voters who are undecided is all the more important, and the Remain side is offering them both positive and negative messages. It is working hard to make sure that the vast number of Britons who regard Europe as a natural part of their lives get out to vote next week. The couple who hop on the Eurostar on impulse to have a weekend in Paris, and the young men and women who go to Magaluf and disgrace themselves in happy confusion, are only a few of the many who have got used to ignoring visas and expect to be able to move freely around the EU among their fellow Europeans.
It is also important that no one should assume that the Remain side is arguing that the EU is perfect as it stands today. It has always been a work in progress, and what is vital is that people know that EU membership is about sharing in defining that process.
Cameron is right when he says the EU needs to open up its markets more and become more competitive. But he is wrong not to work with people like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in Italy who agree with him. Where Cameron has been tragically wrong is in stoking the United Kingdom’s anti-EU feelings by continually fighting with the European partners who should be his allies in improving the EU.
Whatever happens, the vote looks as though it will be very close. This means that whoever is on the losing side will not accept it as final and the vicious style of personal attacks means that it will be hard to see normal party politics resuming post-referendum. But all that is for another day. In the meantime, there is a week to talk to your friends and encourage them to vote for Britain to stay in the EU.
