Prime Minister Narendra Modi is India’s biggest liability in keeping China at bay. Diplomats believe the only way for India to keep China in its place is to befriend America, like former prime minister Manmohan Singh did. But that is something Modi is incapable of for two reasons.
America banned Modi’s entry after the massacre of innocent Muslims in Gujarat. The ban has now been lifted to further American interests. Modi too has swallowed his pride and is visiting America. But one can imagine the level of discomfort. Moreover, he cannot converse well in English with US President Barack Obama or other key players in America. How is he going to strike a friendship with America to keep China in check in India’s national interest? You cannot cosy up via interpreters, can you? Modi answered CNN’s Fareed Zakaria’s questions in Hindi, necessitating English sub-titles, which spoilt the show. So he does have a big handicap.
Clearly, the psychological and linguistic gap between America and Modi is too big to be bridged. Which is bad news for India, considering Chinese President Xi Jinping’s threat to wage a “regional war” ominously compounded by massing of troops and fighter planes in Tibet as New Delhi watches helplessly.
Modi has his limitations — who doesn’t? But he can still effectively steer India’s foreign policy if he makes the right moves. For instance, Modi must make it a point to be in Dhaka — a regional capital he has not visited — on December 16 to remind Bangladeshis about what India has done for them and cement bilateral ties that have developed big cracks, which are showing.
I am proposing December 16, which is celebrated in Bangladesh as Bijoy Dibas, or Victory Day, to commemorate the triumph of Indian and Bangladeshi allied forces over the Pakistani army in the 1971 Liberation War, culminating in the birth of Bangladesh. Modi’s presence in Dhaka on that red-letter day will have an electrifying effect, highlighting New Delhi’s role in the creation of Bangladesh and bringing India and Bangladesh, who are dangerously drifting apart politically, closer for mutual gain.
Bangladesh feels badly let down by India. After coming to power in December 2008, Bangladesh Prime Minister Shaikh Hasina did everything and more to address India’s concerns. She clamped down on separatist rebels from India’s restive north-east who were provided safe haven by the previous Bangladesh Nationalist Party government. Outfits like United Liberation Front of Assam were flushed out. Unofficially, Dhaka even granted transit facilities over land and water to reduce India’s costs for sending goods to its remote north-eastern region.
However, former premier Singh and Modi have left Dhaka fuming and fretting. Singh promised to sign the Teesta River water-sharing agreement during a state visit to Bangladesh in 2011. He also promised to ink a land boundary pact to remove anomalies in the border between the two nations. However, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s opposition scuttled the deal to share the Teesta waters in a 50:50 ratio, while the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) opposition sabotaged the land agreement.
Water is a very emotive issue in agrarian Bangladesh. Since 2011, Hasina is battling criticism for pandering to Indian desires without getting anything in return. She is still in a rather awkward position vis-a-vis India. Modi’s blatantly communal, anti-Bangladeshi remarks to consolidate the Hindu vote in the run-up to the parliamentary elections added to the discomfort of pro-India Hasina. As the previous BJP-led National Democratic Alliance government had tried to bully Bangladesh, many in that country watched Modi’s rise with great concern.
Significantly, Hasina did not attend Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. She was the only leader from South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) countries who did not turn up. Although a pre-scheduled state visit to Japan, a major donor, was cited as the reason, her absence was attributed to her waning faith in India. Even before the regime change in India, her cronies repeatedly said it was not feasible for Hasina to visit India until the pending Teesta and boundary agreements — labelled as proof of India’s intransigence by Bangladeshi opposition — were signed.
Modi visited Bhutan and Nepal after coming to power; he had not attacked either country while canvassing for votes! But he has steered clear of Bangladesh. Maybe he has a guilty conscience. But it is high time he gathers his wits and goes to Dhaka. Bangladeshis who matter know that electioneering is one thing, governance another. So Modi need not worry too much.
Modi should visit Bangladesh on December 16 and exploit the occasion to the hilt. But simply being there will not be enough. He must sign the long overdue Teesta and land boundary agreements. Modi must bluntly tell Mamata where to get off: Foreign policy is the federal government’s prerogative, which state governments cannot impinge upon. And he must issue a whip to BJP MPs not to oppose the bill in parliament for clearing legal hurdles in the path of the boundary agreement.
The Indian security establishment’s first priority is to ensure that Hasina, who is so well disposed towards India, completes her new term as PM, which began this year. A Modi visit on December 16 will help India achieve that strategic goal.
S. N. M. Abdi is a noted Indian journalist and commentator.
