At one time, he was the poster boy of Indian politics. Not only did he slay the villain of Bihar’s “jungle raj” (rule of the jungle) in 2005 by rounding up lawless elements after winning an election and launching social and economic development projects, he also scored another resounding electoral victory in the company of a new set of friends, including the “villain”, in 2015. It appeared at the time that he could do no wrong. So much so that he was seen as a possible prime ministerial candidate of the “secular” front. But, then, the rise and rise of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar came to an abrupt halt, the halo round his head has frayed.
This happened when he switched friends, a move that is seen as crass opportunism, and began pursuing policies that is out of sync with the modern world, threatening to reinforce Bihar’s reputation for backwardness by turning the entire state into a virtual dehat or village.
The first step in this bucolic direction was the imposition of prohibition which has robbed Bihar’s clubs, hotels and intellectual watering holes of cosmopolitanism. Now, Nitish has taken yet another step backwards by demanding 50 per cent reservations for the backward castes in the private sector.
To begin with the second step, it is obvious that by threatening to take the quota system to such an absurd level, the Bihar chief minister has scotched any hope of industrial growth in a state, which is crying out for investment.
In 2012, Bihar received investment proposals worth Rs240 billion (Dh13.51 billion). In the post-liquor ban period in the state, these figures have dropped to Rs65 billion. If his new ally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had any hope of making Bihar the beneficiary of his Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (with all, development for all) goals, he can bid it goodbye.
Nitish’s latest pitch in favour of the backward castes is all the more strange because he cannot seriously expect that his proposal will pass muster at the judicial level. Like most Indian politicians, he is more interested in posing as a champion of whichever group he is courting at a given moment than in adopting measures that have a reasonable chance of success. He merely wants to impress his targeted audience by showing that he did make an honest effort, but was stymied by the “system”. Whether it is prohibition or reservations, Nitish’s ploys tend to underline crafty political manoeuvres rather than any genuine intention of acting in the state’s interest.
Adversary-cum-ally-cum-adversary
Unfortunately for the Janata Dal (United) leader, his gambits are too palpable to deceive anyone. On the issue of reservations, it is clear that Nitish is still battling his old adversary-cum-ally-cum-adversary, Lalu Prasad Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Since Nitish belongs to a numerically small and politically less-influential caste — the Kurmis — than the RJD’s powerful Yadavs, he has never been at ease in Lalu’s company, whether at the time of their camaraderie during Jayaprakash Narayan’s anti-Congress movement or when they were a part of the state government after the 2015 election victory.
The focal point of Nitish’s political career has been to establish himself as the foremost leader in Bihar. Lalu’s conviction in the fodder scam case enabled Nitish to be the No 1 in the Janata Dal (United)-RJD-Congress government.
But he appeared to be forever looking over his shoulder to check whether he was being undermined by the RJD, which has more MLAs than the JDU.
Prohibition was the policy that he embraced to win over the lower middle-class and rural women to his side. But, predictably, the liquor ban has led to an increase in drug abuse with 25 per cent of the cases in de-addiction centres now dealing with the users of cannabis, inhalants and sedatives.
Unlike prohibition that is not aimed at any caste, the demand for 50 per cent reservations is intended by Nitish to bolster his position vis-a-vis Lalu, since both are intent on playing the backward caste card.
It is also a message to his partner in the government, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), about the importance of the quota system for the chief minister, especially when the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief, Mohan Bhagwat, is in favour of doing away with reservations altogether. When Bhagwat expressed his views during the 2015 assembly election campaign, the BJP quickly distanced itself from RSS for fear of losing the backward caste votes. Even then, the BJP’s reputation as a brahmin-baniya (upper caste-trading class) party remains intact. Besides, it is now more focused on playing the nationalist card than on wooing the backward castes.
Nitish must have thought, therefore, that the time was ripe for him to up the ante on the caste issue if only to let the BJP know that he cannot be marginalised as the BJP has been tending to do since tying the knot with the JDU.
But, whatever his intention, Nitish cannot but be aware that his position is much weaker now than when he was in the “secular” camp. Nor is there any chance that he will regain his earlier status any time in the near future.
— IANS
Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst.
