Syrian regime is now weary and frustrated

After months of military deadlock and political impasse in Syria, the tide may finally be turning in the opposition’s favour. A coalition of insurgent groups, led by the Al Qaida wing in Syria, Jabhat Al Nusra, has seized the strategic town of Jisr Al Shughur, northwest of the country, on April 25. The three-day battle, in which more than 10,000 rebel fighters were involved, succeeded in dislodging the regular Syrian army, which was forced to withdraw under heavy bombardment.

The capture of Jisr Al Shughur, only few kilometres from the Turkish borders, in the northwestern province of Idlib comes nearly a month after the Islamist coalition overran the provincial capital of the same name. Jisr Al Shughur lies along a key regime supply route linking Idlib and Latakia provinces, in addition to being situated on the highway to both Aleppo and Hama. The fall of the city undermines regime plans to launch a counter-offensive to retake the city of Idlib.

Analysts believe the Syrian army will have to pull back to the mountains overlooking the Al Gab plain in an effort to prevent a possible rebel march towards Latakia or Hama provinces — the former constituting the gateway to the entire Syrian coastal plain and key ports.

The fall of Jisr Al Shughur is a major blow to the regime and means that the entire province is now in the hands of rebels, fighting under the banner of the Army of Conquest, which includes fighters from Jabhat Al Nusra, Ahrar Al Sham, Jund Al Aqsa and other battalions. It could tilt the balance of power in the rebels’ favour as they try to move towards Latakia, Hama and expand their presence in Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.

It also means that Jabhat Al Nusra is emerging as the most potent of almost 30 rebel groups on the ground that are fighting the regime, including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) whose presence in these newly liberated areas is symbolic.

This latest defeat of the Syrian regular army is one of the many recent setbacks for the Damascus regime. Earlier this month, the regime lost the last border crossing with Jordan in Nasib. Again, Jabhat Al Nusra was in the forefront of rebel groups attacking the area near Darra. The fall of Nasib effectively closed land links between Syria and Jordan. Damascus accused Jordan of facilitating the fall of both Idlib and Nasib, an accusation that Amman had rejected.

Recent military setbacks have undermined a planned offensive by Damascus to recapture Darra and areas extending to the Golan Heights that are under rebel control. They have also exposed the Syrian army’s bad state of preparedness, after four years of civil war, and its reliance on the support of Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Iraqi militias and Hezbollah fighters. Ironically, these forces were supposed to give the Syrian army the upper hand in its southern offensive.

The Syrian regime has been unable to defeat rebel groups in the Damascus countryside as well, in spite of almost daily aerial strikes. And in the past few weeks, Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) fighters have managed to occupy most of the Palestinian refugee camp of Al Yarmouk in the heart of the capital; putting them only few kilometres from the presidential palace.

In the meantime, efforts to find a political formula to the Syrian conflict, amid an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, have come to naught. Geneva I and II, Moscow I and II talks have failed to create a workable framework for a possible settlement. The United Nation’s Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has admitted that his plan for a freeze in fighting in Aleppo has failed. But now he has called on all parties to join him in Geneva on May 4 to assess by the end of June whether there is any hope brokering an end to the war. The invitation was extended to the Syrian government, opposition groups and regional powers, including Iran. Jabhat Al Nusra and Daesh will not be invited, but there are reports that countries or representatives who have contacts with the former will play a part in the talks.

Although hopes are thin that a deal may be brokered in these indirect meetings, the recent military upsets by the regime may force it to offer compromises. Hezbollah is reported to have lost many of its members in Syria and the longer the crisis the more it will have to invest both politically and militarily. Iran has been shaken by the Saudi-led air campaign in Yemen and its influence there has been degraded. And the recent gains by the Islamist coalition in Syria will encourage countries sympathetic to their cause, like Turkey and Qatar, to extend more military aid.

One thing is sure: The Damascus regime is now weary and frustrated. Its allies, especially Iran, are busy on more than one front. It could be the right time for all parties to come to a political solution based on the Geneva I declaration. The rebels’ latest military gains may be a game changer.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.