It is not clear if the recent Jordanian-Israeli understandings on maintaining the historic status quo in Al Aqsa Mosque and Al Haram Al Sharif compound, brokered by US Secretary of State John Kerry, will help stem the cycle of violence in the occupied territories.
After meeting King Abdullah of Jordan and the head of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman on Saturday, Kerry announced that the understandings include round-the-clock video monitoring and Israel’s reaffirming of Jordan’s special and historic role as custodian of the holy site. Israel also confirmed its commitments to such steps.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu committed to protect and maintain the status quo on what Israel calls the Temple Mount (Al Haram Al Sharif) in a statement to international press released on Saturday night, saying: “Israel will continue to enforce its longstanding policy: Muslims pray on the Temple Mount; non-Muslims visit the Temple Mount.” Jordan expressed its relief and hoped that these steps will end violence and pave the way for the implementation of the two-state solution. Palestinians, on the other side, told Kerry that they still insist on their demand for international protection and investigation of Israeli crimes that included summary executions of scores of Palestinians over the past three weeks.
But Kerry’s efforts stopped short of finding ways to revive the stalled peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis. The latest rebellion by Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza Strip is thought to have been triggered by young men and women relying on social media, and independently of the PNA and Palestinian factions. It has been dubbed a digital uprising and a leaderless one. It remains to be seen if Abbas will attempt to quieten things down now that Israel has committed to not tampering with the status quo at Al Haram Al Sharif.
Despair and frustration
Israel has responded violently to Palestinian protests; barricading Arab neighbourhoods in occupied East Jerusalem, arresting hundreds in West Bank villages and towns and using maximum force against protesters and suspected attackers. Its actions have backfired and events in the Occupied Territories have again topped news bulletins after the Palestinian cause had lost regional and international attention during the past few years.
The violence has forced the European Union to attempt to revive stalled peace talks. But without active US intervention its efforts will be rebuffed by Israel. There are no signs that the White House will risk getting entangled in peace mediation in the final leg of Barack Obama’s presidency.
Abbas has described life under Israeli occupation as unbearable. It is certain that despair and frustration have motivated young Palestinian men and women to take to the streets recalling images from the first and the second intifadas.
It is doubtful that the agreement over Al Haram Al Sharif will be enough to end tensions in the Occupied Territories. The PNA is cash-strapped and it was surprising that the US administration decided to reduce its annual aid package by $80 million (Dh294 million). The right-wing Israeli government has avoided any commitment to freezing colony activities in the West Bank and back down from attempts to change the demographic character of occupied East Jerusalem. The latest protests also point to increasing frustration among young Palestinians over their traditional leaders and political factions. More than 20 years after the Oslo Accords the majority of Palestinians feel that they have the most to lose. Many don’t believe that the two-state solution is viable or applicable. Israel’s racist policies have deepened the rift between the two nations and the recent rebellion is an indication that Palestinian emotions are reaching boiling point.
Despite Kerry’s recent efforts, Israel has not committed to engaging the Palestinian leadership in serious final-status negotiations. Even if the pace of protests would quieten down for now the situation could explode at any moment.
This leaves the two leaderships on both sides of the divide in a predicament. How would Netanyahu and Abbas react if the cycle of violence erupted again? An attack against Jewish colonists could trigger a second round of violence. This is the likely scenario that neither party has a reliable plan to deal with. The seeds of a third intifada, one that is more violent and widespread, have been planted. The Palestinians are driven by despair and lack of hope while the Jewish colonists believe the opportunity is there to encroach on more land and resources.
If, as many Palestinians believe, that the two-state solution is dead and buried, then Israel will soon find itself facing the inevitability of enfranchising more than 3.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank alone, forcing a bi-national state to emerge out of the impending chaos. This is something that few Israelis are willing to admit as the outcome of the current perilous course that their government is taking.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
