Usually after a hard-fought primary battle, candidates stick around the state to watch the results roll in and thank their supporters.

That wasn’t the case for poor old Wisconsin, which is likely because after Tuesday’s primary, the race for the White House became a lot more uncertain.

The Republican Party looks to be headed for its first contested convention in decades, while the internal Democratic Party debate over whether to take a progressive turn will continue to rage on — possibly until their own convention this summer.

Let’s start with Republicans. Neither frontrunner Donald Trump nor distant third John Kasich bothered to be in Wisconsin Tuesday evening — they’re both planning to hit the ground in New York on Wednesday, ahead of the primary on 19 April. Senator Ted Cruz — Wisconsin’s winner on the GOP side — was the only candidate to hang around the state on Tuesday, reassuring his supporters in Milwaukee, “We are winning because we are uniting the Republican Party.”

At least, that’s what he keeps telling voters. The Cruz-mentum narrative actually seems more like Trump-deflation.

In past weeks, Trump has attempted to use his bombastic rhetoric to dislodge Cruz and take shots at his wife, Heidi, but the efforts failed miserably. Trump also mocked Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who remains popular at home, at least among conservatives. Walker stood on the dais beside Cruz as he gave his victory speech.

Trump also defended his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who was charged with battery for allegedly grabbing a conservative, female reporter by the wrist. Then the reality TV star got into trouble with female voters for his call to lock up women who get an abortion, if the medical procedure is ever made illegal (he later back-pedalled).

Trump is now trying to salvage his standing with female voters by using his wife, Melania, on the campaign trail, but it may be too late. Trump likely can’t win if he stops being Trump.

For his part, Cruz’s pitch to Republican voters is basically: only I can dislodge Trump. The “Never Trump” movement is coalescing around Cruz, even as many establishment Republicans continue to loathe the Texas senator and the bomb-throwing tactics he’s used to help grind Capitol Hill — and even the federal government — to a halt.

Cruz and Trump are unified around one theme: it’s time for Ohio Governor John Kasich to exit the race. But that’s not looking likely now that it seems mathematically impossible for any candidate to secure enough delegates to lock up the nomination on the first ballot at the Cleveland convention.

Neither Democratic candidate stuck around Wisconsin, either. Bernie Sanders is feeling the Bern after his victory there, but his eyes have already moved on to the next race — he held his Wisconsin rally in Laramie, Wyoming. That’s because he’s facing a math problem: with Clinton wrapping up so many endorsements from non-pledged Super Delegates, Sanders needs every delegate he can solidify from everyday voters.

This puts the Democratic Party elite in a bit of a quandary, which was highlighted in Sanders’ Wisconsin victory: he’s a lingering headache for the Democratic establishment. Sanders is bringing out thousands of energised voters to his rallies, and he’s now won seven of the last eight contests. He’s also expected to win Wyoming this Saturday.

All these victories make it hard for the establishment to call for Sanders to get out of the race, though they desperately want Clinton to be able to make a turn to the general election as soon as possible.

The next big primary battle is in New York on 19 April — a state that both Democratic candidates can claim as home turf: Sanders was born there before moving up north, and Clinton represented the state in the Senate.

For her part, Clinton spent Tuesday in New York, where she held a fundraiser in the evening. Maybe a shakedown of Wall Street bankers is how you win the hearts and minds of New York’s establishment class?

— Guardian News & Media Ltd

Matt Laslo is a reporter and adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University’s MA in Government and Public Policy programme.