Twinkling euro signs have blinded European Union (EU) states to a laundry list of Iranian transgressions. Since sanctions were lifted, anyone who seriously believes this leopard will change its spots needs a reality check. Yes, the Islamic Republic has changed; it’s wealthier and thus enabled to further its regional ambitions and shore up its military prowess. If Iran, which earlier boasted of dominating four Arab capitals, presented a danger to the regional balance of power then, it now has the fuel to become a real and present danger.
Don’t be fooled by its mild-mannered figurehead President Hassan Rouhani. The real power behind his chair is the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Guardian Council comprising six experts in Islamic law and the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards. Rouhani may be “a moderate” by comparison, but he has little say in decisions made in respect to foreign policy and is viewed with suspicions by the US/Israel-hating hardliners.
Iran’s trajectory from being considered a terrorist-supporting rogue state to one that is actively being courted by European heads of state and major corporations has happened in a blink of an eye. Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah were removed from the United States intelligence community’s terrorist threat list without any valid reason, other than the hope that Iran would place its nonexistent nuclear weapons programme on ice over the coming decade.
In the eyes of its new-found European friends, Tehran is a cash cow to boost their flagging economies. The EU Charter enshrines human dignity, freedom, equality, solidarity and justice but in recent times those values are being eroded; firstly, in respect of the treatment of refugees by some EU member countries, who’ve erected walls or passed laws to grab their cash and valuables as a deterrent in spite of the fact that those items are all most of them have in the world; and, secondly, the genuflection of EU presidents, prime ministers and company CEOs before their treasured Iranian guest or, more to the point, his gigantic purse and his magic pen producing joint ventures and trade deals.
Last week, “offensive” ancient nude statues were shrouded in Italy where Rouhani was saluted by the country’s elite guard dressed in their finest before attending a glittering gala dinner, minus the traditional Italian beverage. “We Iranians feel very much at home in Italy,” he said.
In France, a military band accompanied his stroll through Les Invalides with the fawning French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius prior to the signing of contracts, but there was no breaking of bread because President Francois Hollande refused to alter the drinks list to suit Iranian demands. That note of defiance, however, didn’t make up for the fact that Iran’s regional meddling in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain, its open threats directed at Saudi Arabia, and its abysmal human rights record were off the table. After all, which hopeful carpet-seller would point out the boil on his customer’s nose.
Those EU countries may have enriched their economies, but their dignity has been compromised at the altar of filthy lucre. Even as their leaders were currying favour with Rouhani, reports surfaced that Iran flew a surveillance drone over a US aircraft-carrier and ordered an American warship to leave an area of the Straits of Hormuz where Iran was conducting naval exercises; aggressive actions coming on the heels of the detention of ten American sailors by Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
One newspaper headline correctly read, ‘Iran shows the US who’s in charge’. Who can argue with that when the Barack Obama administration has purportedly paid Iran $1.7 billion (Dh6.25 billion) plus interest in respect of monies owed prior to the 1979 so-called Islamic Revolution.
Rouhani, a seasoned diplomat, is saying all the right things to his European counterparts, but even before his “friendship” tour was over, Khamenei released a video denying the Holocaust and accusing US-led western powers of lying about their opposition to terrorism as well as supporting “the fake Zionist regime”.
Over the past three weeks, the ideological head of a country purportedly seeking fresh beginnings warned his government against US “deceit and treachery” and called upon divine revenge in answer to Saudi Arabia’s execution of a Saudi Shiite cleric charged with terrorism.
Rouhani’s PR job is well done, but instead of rewards, the signs are that he’s more than likely to find himself out of a job following upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for February 26. Khamenei held his nose throughout the nuclear negotiations with the P5 + 1 (US, Britain, France, Russia, China plus Germany) but, according to reports, there’s a growing rift between the supreme leader and the reformist president to the extent that Khamenei wants only conservative candidates to run for election.
Real rapprochement between Iran and the West is nothing but a pipe dream and once the reformers are edged out of the political arena, the US and its European allies may find themselves squaring off against a grandiose regional monolith of their own creation.
Linda S. Heard is an award-winning British political columnist and guest television commentator with a focus on the Middle East.
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