Shiites and communists shouldn't have anything in common. They are totally different as they contradict each other, and consequently they cannot enter into any kind of alliance. Despite this fact, there is a clear alliance between the communist regime in China, the regime with a communist legacy as in Russia, and Syria's Alawite regime. (Alawites are a Shiite offshoot).
Russia's and China's support for the Syrian regime was clearly manifested in their veto against United Nations Security Council resolutions on Syria. Hence, it is not impossible to count on the possibility of applying pressure on both countries to change their stance towards the Syrian regime, as was the case in former Yugoslavia, Kosovo or during the liberation of Kuwait.
The current situation coincides with the tough economic conditions prevailing in the United States and many other western countries, some of which are on the verge of bankruptcy and economic collapse.
Currently, the two major countries, which played the key role in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, are suffering from heavy debt and serious economic and financial problems due to the failed political adventures of former US president George W. Bush and former British prime minister Tony Blair.
Now, economic recovery is the main demand of western societies, and also tops the agenda of the upcoming elections in the US and other European countries.Therefore, Russia and China are no longer responding to western pressures, unlike the case more than a decade ago. Russia has benefited significantly from high oil and gas prices, and thus its economy is growing steadily. It is attempting to restore its position as the heir to the Soviet empire, especially given its arsenal of nuclear weapons and inter-continental ballistic missiles.
The Asian giant China's economy is growing steadily while its rare earths are key to the global economy. Hence, Russia-China cooperation makes one recall the Warsaw Alliance. It can be seen as an ideology that combines the best characteristics of capitalism and socialism and makes national interest its first priority.
Accordingly, it would not be possible to ignore the emergence of a new international alliance based on pure interest — an alliance that combines two conflicting ideologies. It seems that there are major mutual interests between China and Russia, as well as Iran, Iraq, Syria and parts of Lebanon represented by the Hezbollah, which supports the Syrian regime. The Alawite regime also has shared interests with Russia, China, Iran and the ruling regime in Iraq.
On the other hand, there is a weak alliance between the West and most Arab countries — the common factor of this alliance is support for the Syrian people, who are being slaughtered while the entire world watches.
It seems that neither the Zionist entity nor the West want the Syrian people to live in dignity. Yet, some, including the Syrian opposition, have already started to make offers and concessions in compliance with Israel's security and safety.
The Syrian opposition has made several statements and held press conferences promising new horizons in Syrian relations with the outside world. This opposition obviously does not represent the various affiliations and political backgrounds of the Syrian people, and is not accepted by them all. Neither does it represent the revolutionary movement on the Syrian street, which raises religious slogans such as "Allah is the Greatest", while the outside opponents have their own beliefs. Some have no clear identity.
Common interests
On Syria, the world is divided into two alliances. The first one supports the regime, and is composed of countries with a communist legacy and others with Shiite majority. This alliance consist of countries that extend across geographical boundaries from the Far East to the north passing through Iran towards the heart of the Arab world and the Mediterranean Sea, and across borders of hundreds of kilometres surrounding the Zionist entity whose security is at the top of America's agenda.
The second alliance is shrouded in doubt and suspicion and is made up of countries with one common interest: their hostility to the Syrian regime, which has undoubtedly squandered every opportunity to avoid foreign interference in the country's affairs. The members of this alliance have their own interests at heart. Although there are interlinked and known interests, there are hidden ones too, as each country tries to keep its interest secret. Dangerously, this marks the shaping of a geopolitical map where the profit and loss account imposes itself on the parties in the alliance.
It clearly seems that the first alliance cannot abandon or let down the Syrian regime, which represents its arm in one of the most important areas of the world. And it does not mind the demise of all the Syrian people for the sake of the regime.
The second alliance does not give much attention to the Syrian people, as its main concern is how to meet its immediate and long-term interests, which do not comply fully with the goals of the revolution in Syria, and are not in accordance with the aspirations of the Syrian revolutionaries specifically.
In view of these contradictions, it seems that the Syrian people will be left alone for a long time, and will not be supported except by a few sympathetic people; some of them have the courage to speak out and do what they can to support the Syrian people aspiring to pride and dignity, while others stand powerless as they can do nothing more than pray.
Dr Khalifa Rashid Al Shaali is an Emirati writer who specialises in legal affairs.
