Iraq’s war against Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) militants, who remain in control of large areas of northern and western parts of the country, is putting a strain on the main ethnic and religious components that make up this state. The latest signal came from Washington last week through Kurdistan Region’s President Masoud Barzani who announced that the Kurdish quest for independence is an ongoing but inevitable process slowed only by the war against Daesh. Kurdistan is an autonomous region of Iraq, under its federal constitution, and has enjoyed self-rule since the end of the Gulf War in the early 1990s.
Iraqi Kurds, who are mostly Sunnis, have rebelled repeatedly against the central government in Baghdad during British rule and after independence. Their quest for an independent Kurdistan goes back many decades, something that regional countries with Kurdish minorities, such as Turkey, Iran and Syria, have suppressed through force. Certainly, Barzani’s latest statements will draw angry reactions not only from Baghdad but from Ankara and Tehran as well. Last year he promised to hold a referendum on the issue, but the war against Daesh, which had targeted cities and towns in Kurdistan, has shifted attention — at least for now.
His recent statements coincided with a bid by US Congress to pass a bill that would send weapons directly to Arab Sunnis and Kurds in Iraq. The bill would grant $715 million (Dh2.6 billion) in conditioned military aid that would allow the US to directly arm the Kurds and Arab Sunnis without passing through the government in Baghdad. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi denounced the proposed bill and accused those behind it of aiming to divide the country into three states. Back in 2006 the then senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, now Vice-President John Biden, proposed that Iraq be divided into three separate regions — Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni — with a central government in Baghdad. In an op-ed he wrote for The New York Times Senator Biden suggested that the idea “is to maintain a united Iraq by decentralising it, giving each ethno-religious group ... room to run its own affairs, while leaving the central government in charge of common interests.”
The proposal was rejected then, especially by Iraq’s Sunnis who also opposed the newly-written constitution which, theoretically, allows for the establishment of self-governing regions in Iraq. Ironically this time, some Sunni leaders have welcomed the proposed Congress bill to arm them directly without going through the Iraqi government. Al Anbar Sunnis have been complaining about the failure of the central government to train volunteers from the tribes and supply them with enough arms to force Daesh militants out of key cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi. They objected to plans to send the controversial Popular Mobilisation Brigades, made up of Shiite fighters and possibly led by Iranian generals, into Al Anbar. They accuse the militias of committing atrocities and of carrying out ethnic cleansing against the Sunnis in liberated areas, such as Tikrit, most recently.
The Iraqi parliament has failed to pass a law to create a national guard that will encompass all Iraqis to fight along the army. Some Shiite leaders have admitted that members of the militias have committed sectarian crimes and called on Al Abadi to allow the Sunnis to form their own forces to fight Daesh. Recently Sunni refugees from Al Anbar have been prevented from entering Baghdad.
Marginalisation fears
On the other hand, the Kurds have had access to weapons that were sent directly to the Peshmerga, who have been fighting Daesh militants in Kirkuk and other regions north of occupied Mosul.
Since Al Abadi took over from Nouri Al Maliki as prime minister last year, he had promised to adopt non-sectarian policies and to incorporate the Sunnis into the political process. But the notoriety of the Popular Mobilisation Brigades and the humanitarian crisis in Al Anbar added to Sunni suspicions of an Iran-led scheme to marginalise them. The recent setbacks by the Iraqi army in Al Anbar and Salahuddin provinces at the hands of Daesh have underlined the flaws that continue to plague the political and military establishments in Baghdad.
During his meeting with Barzani last week, US President Barack Obama reaffirmed his support for a united Iraq, voicing opposition to Kurdistan region’s aspiration for independence. A White House statement said that Obama and his deputy Biden “reaffirmed the United States’ enduring commitment to a united, federal and democratic Iraq, as defined in the Iraqi constitution.” But will this be enough to convince Barzani and a growing number of Iraq’s Sunnis to abandon plans to cede, which they see as the best and probably the only solution to ending sectarian and ethnic bloodletting? Iraq is a favourable candidate for future partition in light of increasing Iranian influence in that country and deepening sectarian divisions. But what is happening in Iraq may repeat itself in other conflict-ridden countries, like Syria and Yemen as well. The redrawing of the map in these countries is becoming a real possibility.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
