Pakistan on the cusp of change

On the anniversary of independence, Pakistanis hope that change is in the air. Till now, fluctuation in socio-economic and political development has prevented the country from realising its true potential. Problems in governance pervading the economy, infrastructure, education and law and order have accelerated, accentuated by regional developments. The last democratic government was unable to mitigate these challenges. The responsibility for righting this situation now rests squarely on the shoulders of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) government.

The fact that Pakistan is not worse off is a tribute to its peoples’ resilience and dynamism, surely their hallmark. A widespread anticipation prevails for the new government to do better and finally set Pakistan on the path to progress.

The first 100 days of a government: the policies it initiates, the personnel changes it makes and its responses to emergent situations signal its likely direction. The central questions are, has the government correctly identified and prioritised the main challenges; and how seriously is it going about its work. Only 70 days have passed, but adequate to commence an assessment.

Several serious problem areas require attention, some more immediate than others. The deteriorating energy shortfall stands out. Electricity shortages have handicapped all economic activity, with the burden suffered by the common man a primary factor in voting out the last Pakistan Peoples Party government.

Promising indicator

The government’s approach towards the energy issue is a promising indicator. It has given it priority, mapped out an energy policy and while taking steps to begin tackling the problem, realistically told the public it should take some three years to surmount the electricity shortfall.

The next issues to address are establishing law and order and combating terrorism. Both have a linkage but are not the same. The law and order situation affecting the individual citizen has sharply deteriorated. The police force is the largest law enforcement agency, but politicisation of recruitment, inadequate training, incompetent leadership and lack of government direction or support has created this situation. This has inevitably compounded the surge of terrorism and the ability of terrorists to blend in undetected and strike at will.

Negotiating with the terrorists as proposed both by the government and the ruling PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province can be attempted, provided that the other side agrees and halts all hostilities during any talks that ensue.

But this also requires the government to implement an effective policy of containment and prevention to guard against persistent terrorist incidents, which has been lacking so far. This requires far better coordination than at present between the police, the security agencies, the civil armed forces and the military. Then countering the ideological challenge of extremism and bringing development into the Federal Administered Tribal Areas bordering Afghanistan.

In Balochistan, economic development and fostering a sense of belonging and participation to carry along the nationalist and disgruntled elements is the key for improving a situation, which has festered for decades. Further South, order has to be brought to Karachi the largest population and industry centre as well as the maritime gateway to Pakistan.

Given a traditionally difficult relationship with India on one side and on the other Afghanistan - which is likely to become even more unstable once the US and allies withdraw - putting Pakistan’s own house in order is crucial to give better leverage in foreign relations.

Creating a positive external environment requires clarity of policy, skilful handling and of course some positive response. Sharif has made the improvement of relations with Pakistan’s neighbours a foreign policy priority and appointed an experienced technocratic team. With India the signs were initially promising before the latest incidents on the Line of Control in Kashmir. China with its continuing stake in a stable and prosperous Pakistan has assured increased economic interaction and investment. The Gwadar–Kashghar corridor would open up new areas in Pakistan as well as in China and enhance connectivity in the region.

Kerry-Luger package

The US is turning from economic assistance to more focused projects once the Kerry-Luger package concludes in 2014. However for reasons other than China it too wants a stable Pakistan on the borders of its main strategic regional partner India and of Afghanistan where it has invested so much in lives and lucre. India remains a question mark. Possibly more than any other Pakistani leader, Sharif given his earlier track record with Indian leaders, has the best chance of persuading India to move towards a mutually beneficial accommodation with Pakistan, rather than striving to extract the maximum from Pakistan, usually the first inclination of its establishment.

The Pakistan military, suspicious with good reason of potential adversaries, realises that its ability to safeguard the country depends ultimately as it should on resources from Pakistan’s own economy which must expand to do so. Hence it likely to support a foreign policy aimed at reducing tension without compromising Pakistan’s core interests.

While internal challenges are daunting and it is early days yet, the new government and its key ministers appear to be going about their tasks seriously. As for the external environment, while it remains extremely complex and difficult to overly influence, the direction set seems sound. The government while fostering national consensus must assiduously work on both fronts so that the expectation of the people of Pakistan that they are on the cusp of change to a better more secure future is realised.

Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder is a former Pakistani diplomat.