In my last column in Gulf News titled ‘Why the GCC states are sceptical about Iran nuclear deal’, I delineated the reasons why the nuclear deal, which will be passed by the US Congress this month, will not calm our fears. On the contrary it could be even more a destabilising factor in our region.
GCC states need to forcefully make the argument and insist that their fears and scepticism should be addressed both strategically and militarily. Lately, there have been more divergent strategic views between the US and its traditional trusted GCC allies. That was proved in Syria when the Obama administration two years ago had a change of heart and caved in after Syria’s tyrant gassed his own people, killing over 1,400 innocent people and crossing President Barack Obama’s line in the sand.
Before that, it was deserting Iraq and leaving it in shambles to fall into Iran’s orbit. That has upset the fragile regional balance of power ever since.
But the straw that broke the camel’s back was the rapprochement with Iran behind the backs of America’s GCC allies, which culminated in the Iran nuclear deal in the middle of July, capping over a decade of laborious negotiations, tolerating Iran’s shenanigans and disregarding the GCC complaints. The fear largely around a US-Iran realignment which could undermine the GCC security even more than it has been.
To address the GCC’s fears, Obama hosted GCC leaders or their representatives at Camp David last May to calm their jitters. Later, after reaching the nuclear deal, he sent his Secretary of Defence and Secretary of State to reassure GCC states that the nuclear deal is the best of all options as it will prevent another war in the Middle East. They emphasised that it is not based on trust but verification.
Furthermore, the Obama administration’s narrative is that the nuclear deal is a win-win situation. We heard Obama’s positive assessment of the nuclear deal on August 5 speech at the American University in Washington: “We have achieved a detailed arrangement that permanently prohibits Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon... It cuts all of Iran’s pathways to a bomb.”
But this is not the full picture or the full truth; we are not on the same page here.
Then Obama confused us and made us even more sceptical of the nuclear deal, confirming our fears of the end game. After 15 years, Iran’s break out to nuclear power will be between six months to one year!
In addition, there is a real fear knowing the chequered history of Iran, which has taught us to be sceptical of its commitment to accords. The deal will embolden Iran, rehabilitate it, enrich it with cash and make it act with hubris and confidence to advance its hegemonic project to dominate the region and undermine our security, sovereignty and stability through its proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and its interventions in GCC states.
Furthermore, Iran boasts about being the imperial power of the region, controlling four Arab capitals through its proxies.
The Obama administration in its wishful thinking believes, unlike us, that the nuclear deal will moderate Iran’s behaviour, alter its project to be the hegemon of the region, and nudge it to have good neighbourly relations with its GCC neighbours. But that sentiment is not shared in our neighbourhood.
On Friday King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia held his first summit meeting as a monarch with Obama in the White House. Iran was a major topic of discussion between the two allies, whose relations has been strained and tested over US policy on Tehran and its proxies.
Since the deal was reached in July, we have witnessed more bellicose statements, rhetoric and bolder aggressive interventions. Iran’s Supreme Leader confirmed that his country’s policy won’t change.
He tweeted in English: “US president has said he could knock out Iran’s military... We welcome no war, nor do we initiate any war, but if any war happens, the one who will emerge loser will be the aggressive and criminal US.”
The litmus test for Iran is its deeds and not its reassurances and rhetoric. We have witnessed an uptick in bravado and rhetoric since the nuclear deal. Iran continued with gusto its meddling in the GCC and other Arab states. Iran is upping the ante towards the GCC states. The discovery of a terrorist cell in Bahrain, trained and armed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and armed with huge quantities of explosives, was unnerving. Bahrain accused Iran of malicious intervention in its affairs.
But the most damning Iran’s intervention in the GCC affairs happened in Kuwait. In a shocking development, the Kuwaiti public prosecutor after over two weeks of uncovering a terrorist cell, charged 26 persons — all Kuwaitis except for one Iranian — with smuggling and hiding a huge arms cache exceeding 20 tons! In addition, the prosecutor accused the members of the cell of holding secret talks with Iran and Hezbollah. This is alarming and does not bode well for the future relationship between Kuwait and Iran. But it shows how guarded we have to be in dealing with the neighbour that is becoming bolder since the nuclear deal. Will this take the cold war between the two sides to a new high?
If the Russians taught the Americans during the Cold War to trust but verify, Iran has taught us it is hard to trust its words and reassurances. So far, it has been more vitriolic and provocative!
The Iran nuclear deal has emboldened the Iranians, and heated up the cold war between us and them. We hope the Obama administration in its victory lap mood could share some of its GCC allies’ fears and calm our jitters and address our concerns. King Salman’s visit to Washington is a good opportunity to do that.
Failing to reassure that GCC states of US resolve could spark a regional nuclear race. The GCC states won’t lag too far behind in the future behind a nuclear Iran. If that comes to pass, then the Iran nuclear deal will be more destabilising factor to our region and won’t avert war, but just delay it and buy time! Thus the nuclear deal will achieve the opposite of its intended goal.
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is a professor of Political Science at Kuwait University. He was the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@docshayji
