A lot of Indians are cringing at the thought of Narendra Modi representing the country at the Brics summit (July 15-16). They are far more uncomfortable with Modi than US President Barrack Obama who told an Indian-origin questioner at a Washington fundraiser after Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister that he still had concerns about Modi’s past.
My advice to those who are so ashamed of Modi — including Nobel laureate Amartya Sen — is to grit their teeth and brace themselves for August 15 when he will address countrymen from the ramparts of Delhi’s Red Fort and unfurl the national flag — sacred prime ministerial duties since India’s birth in 1947, which Modi haters insist he is not fit to perform because of his track record of divisive politics. I have a word of advice for Modi too. He must exercise control over his tongue and look over his shoulders in Brazil on his first, major overseas state visit after Bhutan — which is anyway India’s protectorate. Extreme caution is a must because last month, Modi referred to Bhutan as Nepal in his address to the parliament in Thimpu. He also called Bhutan Ladakh in the very same speech. If Modi is not doubly careful, he may just call Brazil Argentina or Ecuador. I do not want South Americans to have fun at Modi’s expense because afterall, Modi is my prime minister too — whether I like it or not — and a repetition of his faux pas in Bhutan will embarrass me no end.
More importantly, what will Modi bring to the Brics table that he will share with host Brasilian President Dilma Rousseff, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Jacob Zuma in the stunningly beautiful coastal town of Fortaleza? The summit of five emerging nations representing 40 per cent of the world’s population and 20 per cent of global gross domestic product, will be followed by a conclave at Brasilia where Rousseff has invited leaders of Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, Venezuala and Surinam for a powwow with Brics honchos.
Modi’s government has been in power for barely six-seven weeks. Neither Modi nor his closest lieutenants like Finance Minister Arun Jaitley have any experience in international economic diplomacy. In the absence of substantive new thought on multilateral trade agreements and groupings, Modi could well focus on bilateral meetings with Brics leaders. I think he will try to strike a personal rapport with Xi, Putin and Rousseff, besides acquainting himself with issues like the United Nations Security Council reforms, climate change, Brics development bank and export credit guarantees expected to come up for discussion.
Modi may or may not command his peers’ respect, but there is no denying his curiosity value. So leaders will obviously try to size him up: A lot of Modi-gazing is on the cards. As the Brics summit will be his first international exposure, he is bound to be very closely watched and studied. Knowing that he is under the scanner, Modi can be expected to put his best foot forward. Let us see if the international media goes to town on Modi’s high-value accessories like Bvlgari frames for his spectacles, Movado watches and Mont Blanc pens.
Muscle-flexing is likely in Brazil to send a message that India will be a tougher negotiator than before in trade and other outstanding issues. The annual Economic Survey before the union budget has indicated that some free trade agreements will be revisited. Modi could utilise the trip to learn from Brazil as well as impart Brazil a few lessons. The two countries can gain a lot from each other as they are in a comparable stage of development. While Embraer is today the only successful third world commercial aircraft manufacturer, India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is caught in a time warp. Brazil has successfully redeveloped urban slums. But its resurgent poor want more as is evident from rallies and protests against the billions spent to stage the Fifa World Cup. Brazil is also coping with divisive issues — indigenous poor people versus those with colonial link who are rich.
Brazil can learn a lot from India’s democracy, which is up and running for 67 years with all its flaws. Modi is himself a startling product of democracy of the first-past-the-post variety: He commands a parliamentary majority with 31 per cent of votes! So he is the best man to teach Brazilians tricks of the trade as their democracy is far young in comparison. Brazil’s socialist presidents have started addressing the problems of the poor after shedding military dictatorship 25 years ago.
During the Brics party, Modi will be surrounded by leaders who have clashed openly with America — Putin over Ukraine, Xi over Washington’s attempts to expand its zone of influence in Asia and Rousseff over bugging by National Security Agency. Modi’s own problems with Uncle Sam are too well known to bear repetition, but he should refrain from joining any anti-US chorus in view of his impending US visit. If he has a grouse, he should talk things over directly with Americans while enjoying their hospitality.
There are reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pretty upset with Modi for standing him up. The deferment of Modi’s July 3 visit to Japan has angered his hosts. Abe is particularly upset that Modi chose developing Brazil over developed Japan! I think it is in Modi’s interests to soothe Abe’s ruffled feathers by visiting Japan as soon as Abe cools down sufficiently to host him.
On his maiden overseas trip, Modi should not try too hard to make a mark. He must keep a low profile. There are still a lot of question marks hanging over him as Obama’s blunt remark reveals. Those question marks cannot become exclamation marks overnight.
S. N. M. Abdi is a noted Indian journalist and commentator.
