In my January 2017 column in Gulf News, “2016 was a devastating year for order and security”, I argued how depressing and unyielding 2016 was, and how it took its toll on us all. I ventured to argue: “Once again, 2016 was a devastating year for order and security! The fear is that 2017 could top 2016 [and] be even messier, bleaker and unforgiving. Ironically, that could make us look back to that awful 2016 with solace! But I do not make any predictions... It is hard to make a prediction but this year [2017] could be even messier, bleaker and more unforgiving for the Middle East region and the world.”
What a self-fulfilling prophecy that assessment turned out to be! Since then we have witnessed major shifts, alignments and disorder beyond our understanding. These fast-moving changes are not limited to the Middle East. They go far beyond our region.
US President Donald Trump’s lack of political acumen and experience is making the US reel into more divisiveness at home. At the UN General Assembly, he thundered that “While the United States has great strength and patience, if we are forced to defend ourselves or allies, we would have no choice but totally destroy North Korea...”
It is unprecedented that a US president threatens to annihilate another country from the podium of the UN General Assembly. Not be outdone, Kim Jong-un shot back, “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire!”
An indictment of the US foreign policy that needs sober thinking is what Robert Kaplan argued in a recent article in ‘The National Interest’, saying: “The tragedy of American foreign policy is seen when the intention to improve human rights leads to war and chaos...” especially, armed interventions in the Middle East.
Alarmingly for the region and Iran, which re-elected President Hassan Rouhani for a second term, there is no easing of tensions. Iran has continued to defy the West by testing ballistic missiles. The country has not helped stability in the region, and this does not bode well for our region. The Trump administration has upped the ante with Iran and the insinuation by president Trump and his lieutenants about pulling out of the Iran-nuclear deal and accusing Iran of violating its obligation of the nuclear deal (which has to be certified by president Trump by October 15, 2017) looks likely. All indications point out to a major showdown with either the US pulling out of the nuclear deal, or pushing Iran to pull out of the deal by slapping it with more sanctions! This no doubt, will throw the region into a tail spin, of instability.
What hit home was the eruption of the GCC crisis over the summer between three GCC states: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain along with Egypt versus Qatar. Doha was accused of supporting and funding terrorism, interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries. This is by far the most serious and challenging crisis that has hit the GCC. Kuwaiti mediation efforts led by the Kuwaiti Emir with wide support from the major powers — have yielded little in terms of resolving this ongoing crisis that is casting a long shadow on the future and survivability of the GCC as the most successful pan-Arab organisation. The hope is the GCC as people, as a beacon of leadership and as an organisation will weather the storm and survive this ordeal.
Saudi Arabia grabbed a lot of attention with the change of the Crown Prince from Mohammad Bin Nayef to Mohammad Bin Salman, who is spearheading Saudi Arabia 2030 vision. Just a couple of days ago, King Salman decreed that women can drive cars in Saudi Arabia from next year. This is a major opening for the conservative kingdom.
Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) was dealt a major blow and is losing its steam in the region. The terror outfit lost its stronghold in Mosul, the second-largest city in Iraq, Tal Afar was liberated, so was Deir Al Zour in Syria. The major blow for Daesh is the success of US-backed Syrian Kurds surrounding and making gains in Raqqa, the capital of so called Daesh-self-declared caliphate.
Israeli transgressions precipitated a major crisis over the summer with the closure of Al Aqsa Mosque compound, the third holiest mosque for Muslims, hurting the sentiments of Palestinians and Muslims all over the world who denounced Israel’s heavy-handed measures.
Yemen war entered its third year with no military breakthrough or peace settlement to dislodge the Houthis rebels, who celebrated their third year since they instigated their coup! The humanitarian toll is heart-wrenching with over half a million cases of cholera in the war-torn country.
Unfortunately, these depressing crises are pushing the Middle East into implosion form within. This could be consequential and may leave indelible marks on the region.
We hope that we have witnessed the worst of 2017... but then again, when it comes to the Middle East, you cannot be too sure!
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is a professor of Political Science and the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@docshayji.
