Iran’s chance to turn a new leaf

‘The United States desperately needs Iran’s assistance’ is, in a nut-shell, the obvious essence of the content of US President Barack Obama’s speech and press conference last Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, following the announcement of the nuclear deal with Iran last week. One thing was absolutely reconfirmed through his comments, which is the president’s solid commitment to seal his policy of physically pulling out of the region and Asia and opening a new page in the uncertain history of the Middle East. The latest agreement with Iran is undoubtedly designed to publicly recognise Tehran’s wider role in the region and beyond.

It is a well-established fact that a Washington-Tehran mutual understanding was largely helpful to bring the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2011 to an end, despite the presence of Iran’s American-led western boycott regime. More importantly, it would have been almost impossible for the US to conclude its withdrawal from Iraq, had there been no general agreement with Iran to take up responsibility to secure the vacated predominantly Shiite areas, including the oil-rich South and the capital Baghdad.

The latest nuclear deal provides Iran with a greater potential to improve its standing in the region. It will certainly help Tehran in taking yet another vital step of a strategic dimension, this time in the heart of the Arab region. Iran’s role is, and has been, effectively influencing events in at least four Arab capitals. In both Damascus and Beirut, Iran’s power is indisputably detrimental to the political future of both Syria and Lebanon. Tehran is injecting billions of dollars, as well as using the Hezbollah militia of its ally, Hassan Nasrallah, to shore up the widely hated Syrian regime of President Bashar Al Assad. In Beirut, the same militia is holding Lebanon to ransom by preventing its own representatives in the Lebanese parliament from completing the required constitutional quorum to elect a president. The parliament failed to elect a president last Wednesday for the 26th time. Lebanon has been without a head of state for more than 420 days now, which in itself is dangerously adding huge amount of sectarian tension to an already volatile situation in that country.

Additionally, Iran’s role in Iraq has been evidently divisive and ambiguously critical. Iran’s policy of providing unlimited help to the Shiite-led government in Baghdad has unfortunately created conditions for the expansion of Daesh (the self-proclaim Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) in most of the Sunni Arab areas of Iraq. Also, tragically, Iran’s blatant interference in Yemen’s affairs, aiding Al Houthi militia and the deranged forces of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, have inflamed a bloody civil war at the doorsteps of Saudi Arabia.

Back from the cold

However, the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 (US, Britain, France, Russia, China plus Germany) opens several roads for cooperation rather than confrontation. This can only mean that the nuclear deal has provided Iran with a historic opportunity to normalise its relations with the rest of the world and bring it back from the cold. It is a deal that will put Tehran, for the first time in more than three decades, if this deal is sensibly implemented, on the path of transforming itself into a power of good in the region and beyond.

But for this to happen, Iran is urgently required to reassure its immediate neighbours, particularly those in the Arab alliance, and face up to the continuous aggression in Yemen, and its future intentions sooner rather later. World observers of the Middle East region would expect a quick change of priorities on the part of all those who are involved in the nuclear deal.

The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, have by and large welcomed the deal. They all consider the nuclear agreement as a way forward for great potentials, not only on the security front, but more importantly, in terms of the economic and trade relations with Tehran.

The GCC countries are anxiously looking for stability in the Gulf and Middle East. But with almost the total destruction of both Iraq and Syria as two key regional players and the modest regional role that Egypt can afford to play under the circumstances, Iran’s Arab neighbours will naturally feel somewhat vulnerable. Therefore, Tehran’s responsibility in reassuring the Arabs of its intentions is now greater than ever. With Iran, as the largest and most powerful country (apart from Israel) in the region, its neighbours expect it to take the essential steps to ease tensions and to put an end to internal upheaval in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Arab Gulf countries are historically known for their peaceful policies and non-belligerent role in the regional affairs. They can easily learn to live with the new reality that will come about with the nuclear deal. Despite their scepticism, they will learn to manage. But the question will remain unanswered till Iran proves that it is ready to change?

Mustapha Karkouti is a former president of the Foreign Press Association, London.