The Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan will meet in Islamabad from 8th September 2012 a day after their Foreign Secretaries prepare the ground. The primary objective will be to review the progress of the post Mumbai resumed composite dialogue which covers all the main bilateral issues of interaction and to map the way forward. The Foreign Ministers will also preside over the less well known Joint Commission which seeks to promote cooperation in the fields of Education, Information, IT & Telecom, Health, Agriculture, Tourism, Science and Technology and Environmental.
Before the talks begin is a good time to assess expectations. For both countries the very resumption of the dialogue denotes an improvement of the atmospherics and a reduction of tension. On a major issue of interest to India, that of trade there has been progress due to significant flexibility by Pakistan, despite the fact that India with its larger industrial base and economies of scale will benefit more. The only concrete outcomes in this latest round could be a new Visa Agreement and one between the National Council of the Arts of the two countries.
India’s main focus is on terrorism and its expectation that Pakistan should do more in this regard. The pace of progress in the Pakistani courts against those accused of involvement in the Mumbai attack is for India the litmus test. When Pakistan asks for progress in the earlier Samjhauta train bombing in India, suspected to be caused by indigenous extremists, in which many Pakistanis were killed, the response is that the two are not comparable.
In Pakistan the mood is sombre. There has been no progress towards any resolution of the main disputes of Kashmir, the Siachen Glacier, the Sir Creek sea boundary and the water issues. A number of other developments have been disappointing. In the UN and other international fora, slanging matches used to be the hallmark of India-Pakistan relationship, but this has been replaced by restraint of late.
However, India has resumed its tone of criticism implicitly accusing Pakistan of interference in Afghanistan which has led to Pakistan raising Indian use of Afghanistan for destabilisation. At every opportunity India terms Pakistan as the epicentre of terrorism. The Joint Anti Terror Mechanism has been dropped by India which now prefers the media to quiet diplomacy and exchanges of information which would have a better chance of getting results.
Pakistan has never voiced objections to international involvement in the many upriver dams in the part of Kashmir under India’s control. However, now that Pakistan is proceeding with its much-needed Basha Dam to improve the lives of Kashmiris and for flood control and water conservation, India has pressured the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to withdraw their vital funding because India claims it is in disputed territory.
Indian visas, never easy to obtain for a normal Pakistani wanting to visit relatives or perform pilgrimage, have become even more difficult than European visas requiring sophisticated internet filing as well as invitations backed by Indian Police recommendations. Some visa seekers who are dual nationals of Western countries have been asked to provide evidence that they have renounced Pakistani nationality.
It has always been clear that the level of trust and how it develops between the two countries dictates progress and potential progress in any field across the board. In Pakistan, it appears, that the parameters of Indian policy lie between wanting a weak, internationally isolated and compliant neighbour and apprehensions that going too far in that direction may lead to destabilisation with an unpredictable blow back. Pakistanis feel that an economically stronger India backed by the US and its Western allies no longer wants to meaningfully improve ties with Pakistan beyond trade and countering terrorists and extremist tendencies. However, they also believe that it is important to continue to try to manage bilateral relations so that the people of Pakistan are not sidetracked by an atmosphere of tension from tackling vital internal problems and issues.
There is no doubt that though India is doing better economically, both countries face common challenges on how to eradicate poverty, generate adequate electrical power, access energy supplies, enhance crop productivity, overcome water scarcity and prepare to meet the severe challenges posed by climate change. Perhaps evolving cooperation in the soft areas governed by the Joint Commission can make a start in this direction in view of the many common agriculture, health and technology constraints faced by both countries.
However, the paradox remains that while it is obvious that good relations between the two countries would unlock vast opportunities in all fields, including socioeconomic development and political leadership on either side, progress in these areas continues to be painfully slow.
How to overcome this deadlock by building a foundation of trust remains the key objective for both governments, their civil and military bureaucracies and civil societies. The people of both countries deserve no less.
Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder led the Pakistani delegation in negotiating Nuclear and Conventional CBMs with India in 2004-2007.
