The GCC states are not the kind of states that go to war easily. It is not in their nature to start a war or engage in a prolonged conflict. Even when they are provoked, such as Iran’s ongoing occupation of three UAE islands, they tend to stay calm and opt for political and diplomatic way out. But Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal said it loud and clear and with full confidence last week: “If war is imposed on us we are fully ready for it”.
It is also not in the nature of these small and middle-sized states to flaunt their military might. They have built formidable military forces over the years but it is mostly for defence purposes and they are extremely hesitant to put it to use or use it to achieve political ends. The GCC states are typically status quo powers and feel much more comfortable as soft powers than hard powers.
Politically and ideologically the GCC states value the status quo both internally and regionally. The appreciate stability more than any other commodity especially these days when tensions seem to be the rule and stability is the exception throughout the region. They live in a perpetually tense neighbourhood and have no intention to make the very tense region more tense. They feel vulnerable enough living next to difficult neighbours such as expansionist Iran to the east, deeply divided Iraq to the north and a fragile Yemen to the south. It is a tough neighbourhood full of bad guys all year round. To add more tension is not good for their own security and prosperity.
So there must have been some compelling life- threatening reasons for Saudi Arabia and the other four Arab Gulf States to move so massively and decisively in Yemen and declare a war on Iranian backed Al Houthi rebels in the early morning of March 25. They swiftly formed a coalition of 11 states to confront Iran’s unbearable regional expansionism a few days before the signing of the nuclear deal between Iran and 5+1 world powers in Lausanne.
Just for the record, the military operation in Yemen is not the first time the GCC are forced to use their hard power to address imminent threats. The ongoing air strike against Houthi forces in Yemen is the third show of force by the GCC states in less than three years.
The Peninsula Shield operation in Bahrain in 2012 as limited as it was, will go in history as the first daring military intervention of its kind by the GCC states. The second show of hard power by GCC states came in 2014 when they sent the best of their sons and daughters to join the just fight against the deadly Daesh. In both these cases the results have been generally positive and encouraging.
The air and possibly limited ground operation in Yemen is certainly the biggest projection of hard power for the GCC yet. It is not the first show of power and most likely it is not going to be the last time the GCC are forced to use their considerable military might. If the military operation is Yemen achieves its political objectives it might be just the beginnings of things to come.
The GCC states will be tempted to show off their hard power whenever necessary to settle scores with regional hegemons such as Iran. The military campaign in Yemen could be a game changer. It has already transformed the GCC from the soft power that it has been comfortable with during the past three decades to an evolving hard power with vast political ramifications for the regional balance of power.
The new and younger GCC political elites are increasingly convinced to stand up to the bad guys of the region on their own and have to defend their core interests with little help from the US — their traditional superpower ally of the past five decades.
The massive air campaign in Yemen carries with it a dual message to both Iran and the US. The GCC is fully ready for the post nuclear deal era.
The growing projection of hard power by the GCC states is also in tandem with the Gulf moment in contemporary Arab history. The six GCC states are the centre of gravity and activity in the Arab world. They have already consolidated their status as the economic, diplomatic and media capital of the region. In the absence of traditional Arab powers such as Egypt which is totally preoccupied by its own internal problems, Syria which is in a state of disaster, Iraq which is totally penetrated by Iran, the GCC have no choice but to take their historical responsibility to Arab causes with utmost seriousness.
The ongoing campaign to defeat Al Houthi rebels in Yemen and halt arch-rival Iran’s regional expansionism in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen is a defining moment for Saudi Arabia and the GCC states. If the military complain in Yemen is conducted with the utmost care it could define their role in the Middle East for years to come. Success of the operation in Yemen would establish Riyadh and the other GCC capitals as the de facto leader in an Arab region desperately in need of political leadership. However a failure could deal a political setback for the whole Gulf moment.
This campaign has already confirmed that Saudi Arabia is the new heavyweight power around. This was an act of leadership with all the calculated risks involved in such a decisive move. President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi has to be reinstated as the legitimate president, Sana’a has to be liberated from Al Houthi rebels and a political centre has to be inaugurated in Riyadh and the GCC initiative needs to be revitalised. These are the political objectives of the current GCC military campaign in Yemen.
Not a simple task by any means. But if realised it would be considered a huge political success for the Saudi Arabia and the GCC states and will consolidate their role as indispensable regional force with proven and respected hard power.
Going from soft to hard power is not an easy choice for the GCC states. But the time has come to complement their proven soft powers with the hard power of their own.
The military campaign in Yemen is indeed a political storm full of military determination that reflects the thinking of the new and younger leaders in GCC capitals. The message it carries is simple: We are fully capable of defending our own turf and do not meddle with the GCC states any more.
Dr Abdulkhaleq Abdulla is professor of Political Science. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Abdulkhaleq_UAE
