United States President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi met in Hannover on Monday for a rare G5 meeting that covered the most pressing issues on the trans-Atlantic agenda, including the next phase in the battle against Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant).
While the summit had a wide-ranging economic and political agenda, including Ukraine, Syria and the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, the future of Libya was centre stage, with a range of options discussed, including the potential for a Nato mission to help stabilise the country.
This is because, at a time when the newly-established Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya wants to restore order in the country, there are growing US-UK-German-French-Italian and wider international concerns that Daesh may be establishing a stronghold there, especially in the coastal city of Sirte.
US intelligence estimates indicate the number of Daesh fighters in Libya has probably doubled to between 4,000-6,000 in the last 12-18 months, with growing evidence that a significant number of these terrorists are travelling from Iraq and Syria where, because of offensive operations from the 66 member coalition forces, Daesh fighters are believed to be at the lowest level for some two years.
The G5 meeting was convened, in large part, because around half a decade since the death of Muammar Gaddafi, it is perceived that there is now a potential ‘window of opportunity’ to try to bring greater order to the country following upheaval since then. In the absence of the failure to plan for the aftermath of the Gaddafi regime, which Obama has called the “worst mistake” of his presidency, the nation is currently controlled by rival militias, governments and parliaments and the G5 leaders urgently want to shore up the GNA.
Moreover, following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, the G5 is particularly intent on eliminating the prospect of Daesh developing a base of operations in Libya to attack Europe. Merkel said on Monday that the leaders agreed to “do whatever we can to strengthen” the GNA, echoing calls of others, including United Kingdom Defence Secretary Michael Fallon, who flagged last week the possibility of sending UK troops to train forces under the command of the GNA, stressing that Daesh is a direct threat to “Western Europe and we have every interest in securing the security of a stable Libya”.
In this context, Obama re-asserted on Monday that a full range of tools will now be used to roll back Daesh in Libya, from financial, intelligence, military and logistical support, and it is reported that UK special forces are already operating in the country. While sending combat troops has apparently been ruled out, it is “quite possible” the GNA will soon request air and naval support to combat Daesh according to British Foreign Secretary Phillip Hammond.
Obama also stressed at the meeting that the situation in Libya underlines the need for better European counterterrorism strategies and intelligence sharing to tackle Daesh, especially in the wake of the Brussels and Paris attacks. The president perceives major gaps in intelligence gathering and sharing within the continent about Daesh, including in relation to movement of its terrorists across borders, and stressed that this needs better resolution just as the US sought to do after the September 2001 attacks.
The G5 also discussed restoration of oil production to shore up Libya’s economy, and migration flows from the country too. On the oil front, as UN statistics underline, the country has long relied almost entirely on oil and gas extraction, which accounts for 95 per cent of export earnings and 99 per cent of government income.
Oil reserves in Libya are the largest in Africa and among the top 10 globally with production of some 1.65 million barrels per day in 2010 prior to Gaddafi’s ousting. However, production today stands at around 360,000 barrels a day which reflects Libya’s plunge into chaos since then, including Daesh attacks on oil infrastructure. Rejuvenating Libya’s oil production is not just critical to restoring the fortunes of the economy, but also to the GNA’s survival, and alleviating refugee flows from the country.
Much attention has recently been put on the new migrant deal between the EU, Turkey and Greece which will see new irregular migrants crossing to Greece returned to Turkey, with Brussels footing the bill. In return, the EU will admit vetted Syrian refugees directly from Turkey — one for each Syrian asylum seeker Ankara took back from Greece.
However, migration from Libya to Italy is a pressing issue too, driven by instability post-the Gaddafi regime’s fall. A key reason for the G5’s urgency here is not just the numbers of migrants, but also the fact that the death rate in 2015 on this sea route, based on data from the International Organisation for Migration, was around 1 in 20, compared to approximately 1 in 1,000 between Greece and Turkey.
Hence the reason why a potential Nato mission in the Mediterranean was discussed by the G5 leaders to supplement the existing EU force in the region that is operating to try to help manage migrant flows. Nato is already operating in the Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey patrolling for smugglers, and the White House said on Monday that it has urged the EU and Nato to “draw on their experience in the Aegean to explore how they could work together to address in an orderly and humane way migrant flows in the central Mediterranean”.
Taken overall, the G5 is now likely to intensify efforts to shore up the GNA in Libya, and tackle the growing Daesh menace in the country. Underlying this is the strategic priority to prevent the terrorist network using Libya as a key terrorist base of operations to attack Europe, while also mitigating refugee flows from the country to the continent.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics