Now in his last year in office, United States President Barack Obama is in legacy mode. He has much to be proud of. But if he doesn’t want his achievements muddied by foreign policy. He’ll spend his last year redoubling his efforts to contain the Middle East refugee crisis before it goes from a giant humanitarian problem to a giant geostrategic problem that shatters America’s most important ally: The European Union (EU).
The meltdowns of Syria, Somalia, Eritrea, Mali, Chad and Yemen and America’s takedowns of Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan — without proper follow-up on Nato’s part or by local elites — has uncorked the worst refugee crisis since the Second World War. This tidal wave of migrants and refugees is a human tragedy, and their outflow from Syria and Libya, in particular, is destabilising all the neighbouring islands of decency: Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, Kurdistan and Turkey. And now it is eating away at the fabric of the EU as well.
Why should Americans care? Because the EU is the United States of Europe — the world’s other great centre of democracy and economic opportunity. It has its military shortcomings, but with its wealth and liberal values, the EU has become America’s primary partner in addressing climate change, managing Iran and Russia and containing disorder in the Middle East and Africa.
This partnership amplifies American power and, if the EU is hobbled or fractured, America will have to do so many more things around the world with much less help.
At a seminar in Davos, Switzerland, I interviewed David Miliband, president of the International Rescue Committee, which oversees relief operations in more than 30 war-affected countries. He made several key points.
First, one in every 122 people on the planet today is “fleeing a conflict” at a time when wars between nations “are at a record low”, said Miliband. Second, he said, last year, the rescue committee assisted 23 million refugees and internally displaced individuals. Some 50 per cent of those going to Europe come directly out of Syria and most of the rest come from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Eritrea — and the international humanitarian relief system “is now being overwhelmed by the numbers”.
Last year, within the EU bloc, there were 56 million truck crossings between countries and every day 1.7 million crossings by people. Preserving that free movement of trucks, trade and people, Miliband added, is a huge “economic prize”, but it will not be sustained if EU countries feel swamped by refugees who can’t be properly registered or absorbed. More and more countries are now sealing their borders, and anti-immigrant parties are rising everywhere.
In the past few days, the Guardian reported, national leaders and top EU officials warned “that Europe’s passport-free travel zone could crumble within weeks, risking the dissolution of the union”.
“This refugee crisis is a real arrow pointed at the heart of the European Union,” said Miliband.
Obama did not cause this Syria problem, and he can’t fix it alone — but it’s not going to get fixed without US leadership. I have shared the US president’s caution about getting involved on the ground in Syria. But I now believe America and the West need to take another look at establishing some kind of US/EU/Nato safe zone inside Syria and Libya to create space for refugees to remain in these countries. It’s neither a panacea nor is it cost-free, but letting this refugee disaster fracture the EU will be a lot more expensive.
— New York Times News Service
Thomas L. Friedman is a Pulitzer prize-winning journalist and author.
