French socialists have finally decided that former minister Benoit Hamon would be the official candidate of the French Socialist Party (PS) in the next presidential election, having clinched 58 per cent of the vote compared to former Prime Minister Manuel Valls’ 41 per cent.
The result has not come in as a surprise as Hamon was ahead after the first round of polling (36 per cent) and had the assured support of former minister Arnaud Montebourg, who managed to secure 17 per cent of the vote. It became mathematically impossible for Valls, who had 31 per cent of the vote in the first round, to clinch the nomination unless an additional one million voters could be found, who would come to his rescue.
Incidentally, the participation of 2.5 million to 3 million voters — numbers similar to what President François Hollande saw in 2012 — would have given a stature and political weight to any candidate. But in the current setting, a mere 1.5-1.9 million participants in two rounds of voting would hardly suffice. Any result years back would have been of essence due to the pivotal position of the PS in France’s political environment. That position no longer holds today because nobody cares.
We have the precedent of previous opinion polls in France. In the current context the left started with two other candidates: Jean-Luc Melenchon (13 per cent), who sits on the ‘left of the left’ with a crypto-communist programme one would only expect of the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez; and former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron (20 per cent), who says he “is neither right nor left”, which in French language means he is on the right of the PS. Mélenchon summed up the situation well: “Why does the PS spend time and money to choose a candidate for the left? I am there on their left and Macron is there on their right.”
Will Hamon survive when he is caught in the pincers, or come up with a surprise? Fresh polls now give him a 15 per cent lead, ahead of Melenchon at 10 per cent. What is obvious is that the old PS is set to disappear.
For the left, a wide alliance is unlikely. Malenchon and Macron cannot partner as their positions are too far apart. Both, however, are prepared to ‘welcome’ the PS candidate, and make the party disappear once they have ‘swallowed’ him.
Hamon can also go it alone, but that option has little chance of seeing many of the party’s lawmakers elected in the next parliament. This prospect has seen many of them reveal that they are not prepared to commit political suicide and announce that they will thus join Macron sooner or later. Whatever the scenarios, is the French PS going down? Some friends of Hollande have been involved in last-ditch efforts in view of the break-up of the left, leaving who else but Hollande to repair the damages? Unfortunately, and despite Hollande being himself mainly responsible for the carnage, once again it is unlikely Mélenchon will give up — and the same goes for Macron.
Actually, Hollande’s popularity remains too low — he would have run otherwise. Whether he does it discreetly or not, he should lend his backing to Macron. This will afford him plenty of time to conjure up the resurrection of a ‘new’ PS... That is, of course, in the event the right stops burning its sympathy capital with the electorate and wins next May. The right indeed has its own problems. National Font Leader Marine Le Pen has forcefully resumed her campaign after a bout of silence, regaining pole position in the polls, at 25 per cent. She believes both Donald Trump’s victory and Brexit have paved the way for her success, which is possible in view of her supporters’ particular frame of mind.
Former Prime Minister François Fillon, at 22-24 per cent, has conceded some ground after his sparkling victory in the ‘primaries of the Right and the Centre’, but remains ahead of Macron, who is placed at 20-21 per cent by polls. Yet, to bet on Macron coming third in the first round of voting, before proceeding to beat Le Pen in the second round — where there will only be two candidates — is a mistake. Especially if he keeps committing mistakes.
Fillon doesn’t only have friends on the right — see the pathetic attitude of some supporters of former President Nicolas Sarkozy - not to mention on the left. The unbelievably hostile campaign launched by a Masonic-inspired satirical weekly newspaper, just ‘by chance’ three months before the first round, is a striking evidence of it.
The alleged facts — having remunerated his spouse as a parliamentary assistant, a legal move but not entirely expected — will not escape confrontation. These are only the first stink balls thrown at Fillon despite him delivering an inspiring speech on January 29 in Paris that galvanised his troops.
Beyond the anticipated death of the PS, the contradictory nature of the French electorate — for example, being against globalisation and elites but still supporting Macron — and the swiftness of changes in opinion are proof that the outcome of the 2017 presidential election has never been as uncertain as it is today.
Luc Debieuvre is a French essayist and a lecturer at IRIS (Institut de Relations Internationales et Strategiques) and the “FACO” Law University of Paris.
