So many studies and articles speak about the imminent fall of the so-called Islamic State or Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) in the wake of a serious break-up of its internal structure, which explicitly reflected in the acts the group had committed in areas under its control or outside. Daesh is finding it difficult to maintain its grip on an increasingly hostile population, due to its extreme brutality and use of civilians as human shields during battles.
Studies and statements indicate that the group has lost almost half the territory it controlled in Iraq and Syria. According to Peter Cook, the United States Defence Department spokesman, Daesh has lost control of almost half the territory it held in Iraq and around 20 per cent of the territory under its control in Syria. Yet, day after day, there are news reports of shocking numbers of human losses and excessive acts of violence perpetrated by the group. Thus, it might be considered one of the most criminal groups in recent history. However, a feeling of optimism on its imminent fall or defeat should not make us ignore the problems that may erupt as a result.
First of all, thousands of Daesh men are now scattered around the globe with terror attacks carried out by the group’s lone cells. Europe was the scene of terrorist attacks over the past two years with France specifically targeted for many reasons. Among them was Daesh’s apparent intent to direct a blow to the French system of secularism as well as its lifestyle and the globalisation trends. The country is also the most open in the European Union to other cultures. Daesh has also turned its eyes to South East Asia, expanding its activities and quickly claiming responsibility for terrorist attacks in countries such as Indonesia, where the group carried out an attack in the capital, Jakarta. Moreover, some militant groups in South East Asian countries, such as Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines and Indonesia Mujahideen declared loyalty to Daesh along with some of their citizens who had joined the fight in Syria and Iraq.
In East Africa, around 200 members of the militant Somali Al Shabab group, known to be allied with Al Qaida, set up their own faction declaring it as an arm of Daesh in the region. They managed to recruit hundreds of Africans as they positioned themselves on the border between Somalia and Kenya to spearhead activities designed to lead them to Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Cameron in West Africa. It is also a fact that similar cells exist in Egypt, Libya and other countries.
Secondly, international reports and records of human rights groups refer to huge numbers of Daesh men who will return to their countries after the group’s presumed defeat, since it has managed to recruit fighters from 40 different countries, with Arabs accounting for 72 per cent of its members. For example, the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) has reported that a third of Daesh’s European members have already left Syria. According to ICCT, their numbers exceed 4,000 — mostly men between 18 and 30 years old. While it still remains unclear why most of them have chosen to return to their respective European countries, experts believe that some of them were very much affected by the atrocities they witnessed in Syria and Iraq and were looking for repentance.
Yet, according to those very experts, some have returned as lone cells with the intent of carrying out attacks and recruiting new terrorists.
Meanwhile, the return of these Daesh members to their Arab countries will be more serious and can expedite the break-up of the nation state in view of the war in Iraq and Syria and the deviation of the so-called Arab Spring from its aspired path. It could even be more serious than this since Daesh has called for a “general mobilisation” among its members to act and spread terrorism anywhere they want.
Thirdly, a military defeat of Daesh will definitely be incomplete because it is not a war for security despite its importance. The real war will be one of a long-term cultural and ideological confrontation and its outcome will depend on the political policy-makers at the global level and in Arab and Islamic countries in particular. It will also be the responsibility of Islamic clergymen and the media to come forward with the right, logical arguments and evidence to combat ignorance and a mentality that encourages terrorism.
Thus, defeating Daesh and other similar terrorist groups will be through intellectual persuasion countering extremism and fanaticism, which the ‘creators’ of terrorism fear more than a military confrontation.
The phenomenon of Daesh will, sadly, remain for a long time to come, even after its military ‘state’ is defeated. Such a scenario is bound to keep the world busy for several years to come. So, beware of a quick, naive optimism that an end of Daesh and its terrorist acts is imminent.
Professor As’ad Abdul Rahman is the chairman of the Palestinian Encyclopaedia.
