Of all the ministers, princes, party leaders and diplomats I worked with as British foreign secretary, America’s secretaries of state tended to be the most impressive. Hillary Clinton and John Kerry were entirely different in their working habits, but both were enormously impressive in their energy, ideas and intellectual grasp. Of course, they had the advantage of a vast machine working for them, but the world is sadly full of people who have dozens of aides and are still not up to their job.
These people were clearly in charge and excellent to work with and these are things you cannot fake. So the United States, as you might expect of the world’s most powerful nation, has some outstanding leaders available to it. And that’s true on both sides of its increasingly bitter political divide. When I was a Conservative leader, I used to discuss policy with Jeb Bush, then governor of Florida, and found him a highly thoughtful and well-informed colleague. Among the plethora of Republicans running for president, there are candidates such as John Kasich, Governor of Ohio, who has run a big state well and is a rational, mainstream conservative.
Admittedly, another Bush-Clinton election will be a sad reflection on American democracy in some ways. And it would allow the British to poke fun endlessly at a nation whose forebears went to such lengths to escape dynastic political power. But such a choice, or one like it, would present America with possible presidents with something in common: On day one in the White House, they will have the experience, relationships and ideas to be effective and respected leaders of the free world. Unfortunately, these presidential candidates I respect so much have something else in common. They’re not doing very well. With the first voting only days away, Hillary Clinton is on the ropes, at the hands of one Bernie Sanders. I have met him too: An engaging and earnest man, but a genuine socialist who would attempt to make America more like countries it has consistently out-performed.
On the other side, Jeb and the other moderate Republicans have shrunk to poll ratings we would associate with a Liberal fighting a by-election in Bootle, while the extraordinary figure of Donald Trump seems to sweep all before him. I have never encountered Trump, although I am sure it will be fascinating to do so. And I could certainly teach him a thing or two about hairstyles. But he seems to have started running for president as a bit of self-indulgent fun and surprised everyone, possibly including himself, by suddenly being taken seriously. Why is it that voters in the world’s greatest democracy are turning away from accomplished leaders in favour of untried individuals with worryingly simplistic ideas? Part of the answer may lie in the transfer into politics of the reality TV culture, in which the seemingly authentic character, unburdened by any complicated record to justify, comes out best. Yet, there is also an explanation that is much more substantial and concerning: That among the electorates of western nations, there is some real anger and corrosive disillusionment.
It is the same anger that has produced the rise to prominence of Marine Le Pen, Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage, the Greek far Left and the second largest party in Italy being led by a comedian. This is anger about many and varied events, which is why it is manifested by support for alternative leaders of the extreme Left, or extreme Right, or who are just extremely unusual. Some of it is a reaction to the disorientating speed of social and economic change, driven by technology or changing attitudes, which politicians cannot in any case control.
It is also about problems that all of us who have served in governments have been expected to control — scandals that have shaken once-revered institutions, wars that seem to go wrong, and above all, the re-emergence, in the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and its aftermath, of economic problems that were meant to have been abolished. In one fell swoop, the financial crisis destroyed the public reputation of many banks, proved central banks to have woefully misjudged the entire system over which they presided, showed governments to be struggling with a crisis they did not see coming and cost many people their livelihoods and their dreams for no obviously sensible reason.
The cost to established political leaders of what was an economic catastrophe still goes on and can easily be underestimated. Britain has been unusual in Europe in re-electing its principal party of government in recent years, but then it has also been unusual in having the discipline necessary to make a strong recovery. In the European Union (EU) in particular, there is the added public anger at a confused and ineffective response to the growing crisis of migration — a crisis that millions of people can foresee and understand.
The Le Pens of Europe are neither about to win power nor, in all probability, is Donald Trump — close call though that might now be. But such is the loss of faith in established leaders in some countries that they, or others like them in the next few years, are only one massive crisis away from winning power. The biggest threat to the security of western nations and the lives of their citizens is a terrorist attack. This is a threat that has to be defeated, but it is not the one that will overwhelm the political systems. The crisis that will bring extremists and mavericks to power in major countries will be rooted in loss of control of migration or a renewed financial disaster. Sensible governments are busy bringing down their deficits, but it is central banks who make the big judgement on interest rates and the supply of credit.
After eight years of rock-bottom rates and monetary easing, only tentatively departed from in the US, are we absolutely sure that consumers in advanced economies are not taking on too much debt and putting too much of it in their houses? Or that the financial system is not too dependent on easy money? The brilliant minds at the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may well be right. But if they’re wrong, those angry electorates will end up being very, very angry indeed.
— The Telegraph Group Limited, London, 2016
William Hague is a former foreign secretary and a former leader of the Conservative Party of Britain.
