After its initial burst of applause over US President Donald Trump’s election, India is taking a cautious approach to the new US administration, hoping that it will continue to further intensify bilateral relations, and steer away from derailing bilateral cooperation pursued by previous administrations.
Indeed, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first few foreign leaders with whom Trump had, to use his favourite hyperbole, a “fantastic conversation”.
It was obvious from the heady days of the 2016 election campaign that Trump’s style and ideology would differ from that of all his predecessors’ foreign policy.
Present-day US-India bonhomie is a remarkable departure from the Cold War perceptions — under the Soviet influence — which both sides had of each other. The end of the Cold War set the stage for a sharp reversal of such adversarial attitudes, bringing both sides closer to each other.
Washington has over the years shown a steadfast resolve to intensify its relations with India; once the coy partner, India is now more willing to do the tango. Washington’s courtship of India is motivated, in no small way, by China’s growing assertiveness in world affairs.
Also, bipartisan consensus on sustaining and improving Washington’s relationship with India has existed in the US for years.
While Trump arrived as an outsider to the beltway foreign policy consensus and was not a mainstream Republican politician, he did not say anything during the campaign to suggest that he would alter US policy towards India in any significant way. Indeed, candidate Trump had been critical about Pakistan, China and other countries; India was spared.
Quick to seize on the mood, Indian officials visited Washington soon after Trump’s victory in an attempt to feel the new administration’s pulse. Modi’s security adviser Ajit Doval was in Washington to connect with the Trump transition team. India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar also recently visited Washington to exchange notes with the new administration.
But there are also issues that could adversely shake the US-India strategic partnership, unless handled dexterously and in a timely manner.
While Trump’s immigration policy should not adversely affect the interests of Indians, the spate of attacks, including two fatal ones, on Indian-Americans in the US could adversely affect the sentiments within the financially strong Indian community that plays a vital bridge-building role between the people of both countries.
Just between late February and early March, attacks against Indians proliferated, culminating in the ghastly murder of Srinivas Kuchibhotla, an engineer, in Kansas; his Indian friend Alok Madasani also sustained gunshot wounds. A Sikh, whose name was withheld by the authorities, survived a gun attack in Washington State; a convenience store owner Harnish Patel was gunned down in South Carolina.
The travel and visa restrictions imposed on nationals of eight Muslim-majority countries have vitiated the atmosphere against foreigners, with many assailants venting their anger and aggression against Indians who are mistakenly targeted as “Middle Easterners”. Trump needs to avoid his reckless anti-immigrant talk which fuels hatred among people. America’s greatness rests, after all, on the pillar of immigration.
Another thorny issue is the prospect of restricting the H-1B visa programme that allows highly skilled foreigners to work in the US. Indians are awarded some 70 per cent of the 85,000 H-1B visas issued annually to foreigners. This issue could sour relations if Trump carries out his threat to drastically reduce the H-1B visas for foreigners.
The Indian-American community, which is well-educated and affluent, is more important to the United States than its modest demographic share of slightly over 1 per cent of the US population may suggest. The community makes major contributions to the economy, society, and politics — as evidenced by the multiple Indian-American lobby groups in Washington. The Congressional India Caucus, a bipartisan coalition that supports Indian causes, is one of the largest country-focused caucuses on Capitol Hill.
India has also succeeded in getting Washington’s cooperation to fight terrorism, the modern-day hydra. Pakistan has been criticised by many US politicians such as Richard Burr, Dan Rohrabacher, Rand Paul, etc for tolerating extremism. Pakistan’s recent placing under house arrest the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai carnage, Hafeez Syed, is seen by experts as a move to placate the Trump administration and Congress.
Nevertheless, both India and the US can build their strategic cooperation in areas such as energy, defence, business, etc. India’s trade with the US has already crossed the $100 billion (Dh367.3 billion) mark and, as former Under Secretary of Commerce Stefan Selig told me in an interview some months back, has the potential to grow to $500 billion. The US-India bilateral relationship has been on a solid trajectory since the turn of the century. The Trump administration will do well to build on that progress.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist with extensive writing experience on foreign affairs, diplomacy global economics and international trade.
