Jeremy Corbyn won one of the biggest party mandates for any political leader in United Kingdom’s history on Saturday in the contest to become Labour’s new leader. As a little-known backbench MP only a few weeks ago, Corbyn’s victory is remarkable given the massive odds he has overcome in what one bookmaking firm has called “by far the biggest political [betting] move of all time”.
Corbyn is the most left-wing leader of any major UK party for over a generation, and has said that the message of his victory is that people are “fed up with the injustice and inequality” and has promised “things can and will change”. Despite the fact that he has been an MP since 1983, he is perceived by his supporters to represent a game-changing departure from the traditional UK political establishment.
One of Corbyn’s key differentiators is his stance on foreign and defence policy where, for instance, he has said that he will apologise for Labour’s role in the Iraq War over a decade ago under the premiership of Tony Blair. One immediate area where the election of Labour’s new leader may make a key difference is UK policy towards the Middle East, specifically Syria. Corbyn has long expressed his disagreement of UK military intervention overseas, including the Iraq War, and strongly opposes the extension of UK military action against Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). He also favours unilateral nuclear disarmament, British withdrawal from Nato and is a frequent critic of American foreign policy. His position on the European Union (EU) remains uncertain and he has not ruled out campaigning for UK exit in the landmark ‘in-out’ referendum that is widely expected next year.
As well as the clarity of Corbyn’s socialist platform, it was the grassroots energy of his campaign that helped differentiate his candidacy from the other three candidates for the Labour leadership. Corbyn won with 59.5 per cent of first-preference votes, besting Andy Burnham, who secured 19 per cent, and Yvette Cooper who won 17 per cent. The so-called “Blairite” candidate, Liz Kendall, who advocated policy positions closest to the former prime minister, came last on 4.5 per cent.
Corbyn has placed significant emphasis on translating the momentum from his campaign into building a new party structure. He said on Saturday, “We go forward as a movement and a party, stronger, bigger and more determined than we have been for a very long time”.
In part, what Corbyn is pointing to here is building upon the major increase in new members, registered supporters and affiliates to the Labour Party since May’s general election setback. This has resulted in the electoral base for the leadership election growing significantly to some 450,000 people. There is also the possibility of Corbyn cooperating more with other parties, including the Greens. On Saturday, UK Green Party leader Natalie Bennett declared that she would welcome Corbyn joining forces with her on issues ranging from opposition to renewal of Britain’s Trident nuclear weapons, tackling environmental issues like climate change, and promoting electoral reform.
One of the key challenges now facing Corbyn is re-unifying the right and left of the party. He faces a significant task here and, already, several leading shadow ministers from the centre and right of Labour have declared that they will move to the backbenches, including Cooper, Kendall, Chukka Umunna, Tristram Hunt, Rachel Reeves, and Emma Reynolds.
What remains unclear is precisely how attractive Corbyn’s leadership will be for the wider UK electorate, beyond Labour supporters, which rejected the party in May’s UK general election. Many senior political figures from the centre and right wing of Labour, including former leaders Blair and Gordon Brown, argued passionately against Corbyn’s election, which they believe could now consign the party to another generation in the electoral wilderness as in the 1980s. Already the Conservatives have attacked his leadership as a risk to the UK’s economic and political security.
So despite the remarkable nature of Corbyn’s victory, it cannot be taken for granted that he will be Labour leader at the next general election in 2020 when he will be 70 and thus vying to become the oldest UK prime minister since 1855. One key test that will help determine how long he remains as party chief will be the outcome of the May 2016 Scottish Parliament and the London Mayoral elections.
If the party were to do well in the Scottish parliament elections against the ruling Scottish National Party, and also win the London Mayoralty against the Conservatives for the first time since 2004, Corbyn would assert that a Labour fightback had begun. And this would consolidate his prospects of remaining party leader for the duration of the current UK parliament.
Taken overall, Corbyn’s win represents a political earthquake in the Westminster establishment. The aftershocks will continue for weeks to come as he seeks to move the centre of gravity of UK politics in a leftward direction.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE Ideas (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics.
