On Sunday, Hillary Clinton announced her intention to run to become the first female president in US history. She is the overwhelming favourite to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, despite the recent controversies over her personal email use when she was US secretary of state between 2009 and 2013.
Although general election day remains over a year and a half away, Clinton’s announcement is the clearest sign yet that the US presidential election race has already begun. While the Democratic race is already hers to lose, the Republican contest could be the most competitive race in a generation.
In the last month, two major Republicans (Rand Paul, the libertarian Republican senator from Kentucky, and Ted Cruz, a Tea Party favourite and also a Republican senator from Texas), have announced their intentions to run for president. Paul and Cruz could prove strong candidates, but will potentially face a very large field of others for the Republican nomination in what is shaping up to be a very fluid, uncertain race.
Amongst the other contenders for the Republican crown who are formally exploring the possibility of a run include former Florida governor Jeb Bush, the brother and son of former presidents George W. and George H.W. Bush respectively; the Governors of Texas, New Jersey, and Wisconsin Rick Perry, Chris Christie and Scott Walker respectively; and businessman Donald Trump. Others who have expressed interest in joining the fray include US Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, business executive Carly Fiorina, and US Representative Peter King of New York.
The past few decades of US political history indicates the victor in nomination contests for both major parties usually leads national polls of party identifiers on the eve of the first presidential nomination ballot, traditionally in Iowa, and also raises more campaign finance than any other candidate in the 12 months prior to election year.
From 1980 to 2012, for instance, the eventual nominee in 8 of the 14 Democratic and Republican nomination races that were contested (that is, in which there was more than one candidate), was the early frontrunner by both of these two measures. This was true of George W. Bush, the Republican candidate in 2000; Al Gore, the Democratic nominee in 2000; Bob Dole, the Republican candidate in 1996; Bill Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 1992; George H.W. Bush, the Republican candidate in 1988 and 1992; Walter Mondale, the Democratic nominee in 1984; and Jimmy Carter, the Democratic candidate in 1980.
Moreover, in at least three partial exceptions to this pattern, the eventual presidential nominee led the rest of the field on one of the two measures. This was true of Republican Mitt Romney in 2012, Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988, and Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980.
For instance, in the race for the 2012 Republican nomination, Romney was the leading fundraiser, but sometimes trailed or was tied in national polls of party identifiers to Newt Gingrich immediately prior to the Iowa ballot. Moreover, in the 1980 Republican presidential nomination, Reagan (who ultimately won) led national polls of party identifiers, although John Connally was the leading fundraiser.
On both the fundraising and national poll measures, Hillary Clinton will be the strong favourite for the Democrats. Indeed, so much so that some other potentially first class candidates, including current Vice-President Joe Biden, may decide not to put their hats into the ring.
For instance, a Reuters/Ipsos national poll taken last month found that some 45% of Democrats favour Clinton to win the party nomination. While this is a sizeable drop since the controversy began over her email use as secretary of state, she is still significantly ahead of any other candidate.
However, while Clinton is favourite to win the Democratic nomination, she may still face a very tough general election race in 2016 against the eventual Republican nominee. One of the key factors that will influence Republican prospects of defeating her will be whether, and how quickly, the party can unite around its own nominee given the potentially large amount of contenders.
A model here for Republicans is the 2000 cycle when George W. Bush emerged strongly from a wide field of contenders before going on to defeat Gore. However, as Romney found in 2012, it may be hard to unify the party in such a decisive way in 2016 unless a clear favourite emerges early.
After two presidential terms of Democrat Obama in the White House, many Republican operatives will be keen to avoid a bruising, introspective and drawn-out contest that exposes significant intraparty division to the national electorate. The last few times such a scenario unfolded the Republicans lost the general election.
Indeed, Clinton’s husband Bill benefited from this same dynamic in 1992 and went on to win a relatively comfortable victory in that year’s general election. While the circumstances of 2016 will be different from 1992, and indeed 2012 too, it is nonetheless the case that another divisive Republican nomination contest would probably only benefit the Democrats, and potentially be a tipping point, in a very tight general election contest.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS (the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy) at the London School of Economics. He was formerly the US Editor at Oxford Analytica.
