You could call them the odd couple. China and Pakistan have one of the closest yet least understood relationships in international diplomacy. On the surface, they have little in common. China’s state is strong and its economy has been growing for decades. The Pakistani state, apart from the military, is weak and its economic performance has been disastrous. China is Communist and religion is tightly controlled. Pakistan is Islamic and religious fervour is often out of control.

Despite this, the two have maintained a decades-long relationship. It has survived the vicissitudes of Pakistan’s military and civilian governments and of Islamabad’s shape-shifting relations with Washington. On Thursday, Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, visited Pakistan to cement what Islamabad calls the “unshakeable bonds of friendship”. Xi Jinping, China’s President, has accepted an invitation to visit Islamabad this year.

We tend not to see things through Beijing’s eyes. If we are to make sense of shifting realities, we will have to try. From Beijing, the world can seem a hostile place. The US, with its unshakeable faith in liberal democracy, may not be actively seeking regime change in China, but it will surely welcome the collapse of the Communist party. In conjunction with other countries, including India, Australia and Japan, Washington is trying to contain China’s regional military ambitions. Neighbouring countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, which until recently had been reassured by Beijing’s “smile diplomacy”, have grown wary. Even North Korea, almost wholly dependent on Chinese largesse, has grown defiant.

Pakistan looks like Beijing’s one true friend. One of the first countries to recognise the People’s Republic in the early 1950s, Islamabad was a bridge between China and the US. When Henry Kissinger, who later became US secretary of state, made his secret visit to China in 1971 to prepare for normalisation of US-China relations, he sneaked in from Pakistan. And for Beijing, Pakistan has been a way to keep India off balance.

In return, Beijing has kept Pakistan’s military equipped when supplies dried up from elsewhere. Beijing also provided information and enriched uranium for Pakistan’s nuclear bomb. When a US stealth helicopter crashed during the 2011 operation to kill Osama Bin Laden, the Pakistanis showed the wreckage first to the Chinese. China built Pakistan a deepwater port at Gwadar on the Indian Ocean.

Staying the course

Andrew Small, author of a book on the relationship, says Beijing has earned real leverage. In 2007, under Chinese pressure, Islamabad raided the Lal Masjid “Red Mosque” after militants kidnapped several Chinese citizens. Chinese pressure has been one factor behind Pakistan’s offensive against militant groups in North Waziristan.

For years, the US pushed for the same thing without success. The China-Pakistan axis is worth watching if only because it shows the limits of Beijing’s non-interventionist policy. As it gets sucked into the global whirlpool, it faces the risk of blowback. China now has to deal with attacks by members of the Uighur, a Muslim minority group. Some may be ideologically inspired, if not planned, in Pakistan’s lawless tribal belt. Like the US, Beijing worries Pakistan may not always crack down as hard on terrorists as it pretends.

Despite all this, China has stayed the course while Washington has blown hot and cold. That raises the intriguing notion of whether the US and China could work more closely in Pakistan.

While there is much that divides their strategic interests, a surprising amount unites them. Beijing and Washington want a stable, viable Pakistan, not a viper’s nest of terrorist export. Both want to ensure the Pakistani military keeps a firm hold on nuclear weapons. Both want Pakistan to rein in support for the Afghan Taliban in the wake of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Some detect signs that Beijing has become more open to the idea. Wang Jisi, a Chinese foreign policy expert, has said that China’s “western periphery” offers a rare opportunity. In east Asia, the US pivot is seen as containment and the two are locked in what he says is a zero-sum game. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, however, Beijing and Washington have “significant scope for cooperation”. It is in neither’s interest for Pakistan to fail. If they could work together in that cause, it would be the oddest thing of all.

— Financial Times