As Pakistan commemorated the second anniversary on Friday of the brutal carnage at a school in the northern city of Peshawar, following a Taliban attack in 2014, the occasion provided a timely opportunity to take stock of the country’s emerging situation.
Two years after that attack, which had claimed more than 140 innocent lives, the once widely-feared Taliban push to conquer space in mainstream Pakistan as a trend now appears to have been reversed. And yet, all is not well in the country.
The biggest gap appears to be that of making certain that long overdue reforms take Pakistan in a qualitatively improved direction. But evidence from the ground suggests a widening disconnect between Pakistan’s rulers and the grass roots, with consequences for the future. Agencies once considered essential for addressing challenges surrounding daily lives have fallen in disarray, while the country’s ruling order is showing few signs of taking decisive action to stem the rot.
One such instance came to light in Karachi just recently when a family of travellers from Islamabad found one of their mobile phones missing. However, what followed was a virtual refusal by the police (in the area where the phone was tracked down) to help recover the lost cell phone. Instead, well-trained and well-armed private guards from a respected company arrived and surrounded the premises.
Soon, action such as taking of photographs of the house where the phone was traced through an online tracking system, immediately yielded results. In sharp contrast to the days when a stolen cell phone simply vanished and became yet another sorry number, the results in this recently cited case were qualitatively different.
In the same evening, the stolen phone was voluntarily returned to its owner. For the victim of this latest crime, the overall experience said much about Pakistan’s direction as a country where state institutions have become dysfunctional while privately-run institutions have taken over.
On the one hand, it became clear yet again that notwithstanding the return of relative calm to Karachi in the wake of an operation against criminals, it would be foolish to assume that permanent peace has returned to the city of 20 million. On the other hand, it was also clear, yet again, that Pakistan will simply fail to benefit from its recent gains, unless follow-up actions are taken very decisively.
Going forward, in addition to fighting the fight, which is the job of Pakistan’s security services, including the army and the police, the country badly needs a series of reforms. In the past week, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in yet another of his public messages, predicted better times for Pakistan in the future as he presided over the inauguration ceremony of a new developmental project. The occasion clearly mimicked similar events in the past, when a message of hope and better times for the future were sent out.
And yet, consolidating the gains two years after the carnage in Peshawar appears to be much easier said than done. But notwithstanding the realities on the ground, Pakistan will likely continue to see a similar gap between official messages and the reality, especially in the build-up to the next national elections due in 2018. Such messages will likely continue to be led by the ‘sub achha hain’ (all is well) narrative as Sharif’s ruling structure seeks votes to make a comeback in less than two years from now.
However, gimmickry of any kind will fail to mask some key realities across Pakistan. In a country where at least one-third of a population of more than 200 million continues to live in abject poverty, bold policy changes as opposed to bold messages without substance are the only way to ring in any change for the better. And yet, the Sharif government’s choice of a direction for Pakistan’s future has already promised to widen the gap between the top elite and the mainstream.
In the past two years, a growing crisis surrounding agricultural incomes has meant that up to 60 per cent of Pakistan’s population, which relies on farm incomes, has found itself increasingly impoverished. Meanwhile, other vital areas such as parts of Pakistan’s industry have also suffered badly — thanks in part to continuing energy shortages.
All these sorry trends have continued to grow in parallel with official messages of hope led by China’s planned investment of more than $50 billion (Dh183.9 billion) in Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy projects. Once completed, these could be a game changer for Pakistan. But between now and when the promised projects become a reality, Pakistan must cope with a host of vital challenges.
At the top of that list of challenges must lie central questions over Pakistan’s ability to meet the coming financial burden. Once China’s promised projects are completed, the next stage will require Pakistan to repay those loans. The country is already saddled with a narrow tax base as just around one per cent of the population pays income tax. Past efforts to widen that tax net have met with failure.
Additionally, widespread policy issues such as corruption and bureaucratic snags continue to hold back prospects for increasing domestic and foreign investments, in a country with a larger-than-affordable population rise. Though not directly linked to steps for meeting the security challenges, these issues will indirectly continue to impact Pakistan’s prospects for attaining increased stability. Ultimately, a central question is — Will Pakistan commemorate coming anniversaries of the 2014 Peshawar carnage that has surrounded the south Asian country without ensuring that future cases of terrorism are eliminated?
Farhan Bokhari is a Pakistan-based commentator who writes on political and economic matters.
