The Middle East is facing one of the most turbulent periods in its history, with the continuing chaos in Iraq, the reverberations of the “Arab Spring”, the Syrian civil war and the rise of Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant). Regional state structures have fractured and led to the refugee crisis, which is now putting stress on Europe’s borders, institutions and tradition of tolerance.
No wonder states in the Gulf feel nervous. But those in the West are not helping. United States President Barack Obama has overseen an ill-considered foreign policy “pivot” towards Asia that has led to disengagement with the region. Combined with the failure to act against atrocities in Syria, it is little wonder he received such a lukewarm welcome on his recent trip to Riyadh.
Moreover, despite last year’s nuclear deal, Iran continues to manipulate proxies that sustain discord in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain and Yemen. Tehran’s interference not only threatens western interests but also the only relatively stable area in the region — the Gulf. The United Kingdom is playing a leading role in the global fight against terrorism and efforts to bring stability to the region.
However, the West needs friends in this enterprise and those friends need to know that Britain is a reliable ally. British Prime Minister, David Cameron, on several occasions, has noted that Saudi counter-terrorism intelligence has saved British lives. We need to reciprocate. Britain has a long history in the Gulf. Countries such as Saudi Arabia have been close allies since the Second World War. It is easy to forget that, despite their wealth, many of these countries actually have small populations and their people feel justifiably insecure as they survey the dangerous environment in which they live. As a result, every word and every action taken by their international friends is scrutinised to test the strength of those allies’ resolve and commitment. This is why the inquiry by the parliamentary committee on arms export control into the sale of UK weapons to Saudi Arabia, that are then used in the ongoing operations in Yemen, is so unwelcome and self-defeating.
Faced with their multiple security concerns, and now with this inquiry, the Saudis and other regional allies could be forgiven for questioning Britain’s commitment to supporting them in their efforts to pursue a shared interest in confronting terrorism. A small coalition of vocal special-interest campaign groups seems intent on pursuing agendas, which are, at worst, hostile to Britain’s national interests, and at best ill-informed or naive.
In Yemen, already an Al Qaida base, a minority group, Al Houthis, with significant external support and encouragement from Iran, are attempting to undermine and depose the internationally recognised government. In doing so, they have created an area of alarming instability on the border of Saudi Arabia and provoked a humanitarian crisis.
Whatever we think of how the Saudi-led coalition is conducting operations to halt and reverse Al Houthi advance, we need to note the United Nations-backed legitimacy of the intervention; to understand why Saudi Arabia, and other regional allies, felt the need to respond so robustly; and to acknowledge the complexity of conducting these operations. Saudi Arabia understands the scrutiny it is under, and is very sensitive to it.
The Gulf is one big “echo chamber”, and in the past decade, Britain’s allies in the region have been routinely exasperated by its apparent willingness to indulge special-interest groups over national interest. Where Britain’s allies feel it is indulging itself by criticising efforts they are taking to stabilise areas vital to their own, and Britain’s, security, there will be serious consequences for the United Kingdom across the region. The UK’s competitors see great opportunities to fill the security and economic vacuums that will be left by Britain’s actions, while those who wish it harm will delight in seeing its commitment to Gulf stability, and the fight against terrorism, weakened or broken.
When considering the best ways of helping stabilise the region, improving Britain’s own security and protecting the lives of its own citizens, the UK should be looking to coordinate and cooperate with friends and allies in the Gulf on the basis of understanding and mutual interest. There are a range of political, economic and social reforms that are critical to the long-term stability of the Gulf and they are well understood by many in the region.
However, given the parlous state of the wider Middle East, some of these look like luxuries at present. The more secure Gulf countries feel, the better the long-term prospects for reform and therefore stability. By contrast, the less secure they feel, the greater the likelihood of further turbulence and strife. Most informed observers will contend that the last thing we need in the region now is another “Arab Spring”. The UK, the government and MPs must make up their minds: Do they want to contribute to security or insecurity?
— The Telegraph Group Limited, London, 2016
Lt. General Sir Simon Mayall is the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence’s former senior adviser, Middle East.