There is almost an overwhelming sense of fear among the well-informed decision-makers and the enlightened public within Europe and beyond of the consequences of the referendum this Thursday in the UK. I, for one, sincerely hope that Brexit fails, to avoid the damage it promises to do if the result swings its way.

The damage will be extensive and destructive for personal, institutional and international territories. First, in Britain, campaigning ahead of the referendum has already done irreversible damage in splitting up the country for the first time in its modern history and deeply shaking the foundations of the Conservative Party, one of the UK’s historically leading political institutions. So far, 23 members of Prime Minister David Cameron’s Cabinet have said they would vote to remain in the European Union, while seven have joined the Leave campaign. Among Tory ministers of state, 48 are in the Remain camp, with 12 opting to Leave and three yet to decide.

But the more serious division is within the Conservative Party ranks in Parliament where 120 MPs want ‘Out’ and only 112 MPs are rallying behind Cameron to vote ‘In’. Fourteen Tory backbenchers are yet to decide.

A friendship lost

Above all, one of the immediate casualties in the campaign has been the close relationship between Cameron and Justice Secretary Michael Gove. It is commonly known that the two men were close, — not only at a party level but at a family level as well. They would holiday together and jointly attend their children’s birthday and school parties. But the writing was on the wall immediately after Cameron demoted Gove from being a full Cabinet member holding the prestigious post of Education Secretary to part-time member as Justice Secretary. The crack started then and this was reflected by Gove’s wife, Daily Mail columnist Sarah Vine, who is godmother to the Camerons’ youngest daughter. She tweeted a link to an article by another journalist describing the prime minister’s move as “a shabby days’ work which Cameron will only live to regret”.Cameron and Gove are now political enemies locked in a battle for survival. For many, this is considered a quite dramatic state of affairs unseen since probably the political demise of Antony Eden as a prime minister and Conservative leader following his adventure in the Suez War of 1956. In order to, among other things, consolidate his leadership at home, Eden decided to go to war against Nasser’s Egypt to teach the Arab leader a lesson for daring to internationalise the Suez Canal

Modern-day Tory war

There is currently what looks like a civil war in the Conservative Party and this internal battle is being mercilessly fought over Europe. The outcome of the referendum will not only decide the fate of Cameron and Gove; if Brexiters win, it will shape the future of Britain and could ultimately put an end to Cameron’s career. It is inconceivable for the two men to work together again after such a bitter campaign where terms like ‘traitors’, ‘liars’, ‘defeatists’, ‘deceivers’, ‘sell-out’ have been continuously and viciously used regularly since Cameron’s call for the referendum over three months ago. There is now so much hate between them and their supporters within the party for them to remedy the damage that has already been done.Though it may appear in the public eyes that former Mayor of London and conservative MP Boris Johnson is leading the ‘Leave’ campaign, everyone knows that Gove is the brains behind it. It was Gove who persuaded Johnson to convert to the ‘Leave’ camp. Gove’s ambitions for a high position in British politics were clearly obvious from his days as a fast-rising journalist back in the mid-2000s at Rupert Murdoch’s media company, News UK.

Following a recent lunch organised by News UK, Murdoch used Twitter and editorials in one of his newspapers, The Sun, the largest in the UK, urging Gove to put loyalty to his principles first, ahead of friendship.

Rise of right-wing movements

However, the second most worrying issue concerns the growing indications outside the UK that support for a Brexit is on the increase, something that is raising the fears of officials in both Brussels and Washington. In Europe, the rise of right-wing and isolationist political movements is starkly evident, particularly in central and western Europe. The liberal candidate in Austria’s presidential election last month won the race by a tiny fraction.France and Germany, the EU’s largest powers, are worried as they go to the polls next year with resurgent Euro-sceptic parties threatening the largely liberal political establishment for the first time since Europe began working together in early 1950s.

If Britain’s public votes Leave this Thursday, all 28 member states will go through a period of uncertainty — at least for the first two years. The well-established London-based research centre, the Royal Institute for International Affairs, better known as Chatham House, says Europe will be entering “uncharted territory”. These are undoubtedly anxious times for almost three million citizens from other EU countries currently living in the UK and for over 1.3 million British expatriates — mostly pensioners — who live in other EU countries, mostly in France. The free movement rights that allow EU citizens to work and reside in any of the 28 countries could eventually be scrapped if Britain votes to leave.

Security

The third issue of concern is security — something that US President Barack Obama raised during his visit to London in April. Obama believes Britain’s place in the world will be diminished if it leaves the EU. He is also fearful of a weaker western alliance with Europe across the Atlantic. No less than 16 former US secretaries of state, defence, treasury and CIA directors published a letter in the London Times last month warning that opting out carries dangerous ramifications in view of the huge instability in the Middle East.

Obama’s intervention has surprisingly drawn an unexpected campaign from those who support Brexit, as they have accused the US administration of hypocrisy. Obama was accused of interfering in “a domestic decision about the future of Britain’s sovereignty”. These accusations on the part of the ‘Leave’ campaign are unheard of in the history of Anglo-American or western alliance relations But it seems that by highlighting the sovereignty issue, the Brexit campaigners are deliberately playing on the sensitive nerve of Middle England voters who could swing the results in favour of a Brexit.

 

Mustapha Karkouti is a former president of the Foreign Press Association, London.